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- Cardano (ADA) was traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while the whale wallets continued to gather signals.
- Wallets with ADA 100,000 to 100 million will reach a peak from February 2023, as small investors reduce exposure.
- Van Rossem’s upcoming hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could be the catalyst for ADA’s next move.
Cardano (ADA) was slightly lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after experiencing some difficult trading in the previous session.
Despite the pullback, on-chain and derivative data show that investor sentiment is gradually improving as the big smoke continues to accumulate cryptocurrency ahead of the key Internet boom.
The combination of whale growth, strengthening derivatives, and the impending van Rossem fork has raised expectations that the ADA could trigger a recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.
The Whalers continue to collect ADA
On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear difference between the major and minor Cardano holders.
Wallets with between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now hold over 25.65 billion ADA, the highest since February 2023.
In contrast, wallets with less than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by 0.7% over the past four months.
These developments suggest that institutional investors and high-income investors continue to accumulate Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. In the past, the constant increase in whaling often preceded periods of strong prices.
Cardano’s development map received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization that supports the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that van Rossem’s hard fork will open on Saturday following the approval of the leadership earlier this week.
The upgrade brings new functionality to Plutus along with protocol enhancements designed to improve smart performance, developer experience, and network efficiency.
A hard fork can provide a local catalyst by strengthening the Cardano ecosystem and increasing trust between developers and investors.
Future market activity also shows strengthening business confidence.
According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) it rose from about $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.
Rising Open Interest combined with price stability usually indicates that new funds are entering the market rather than traders simply closing out existing positions.
Meanwhile, the ADA fee has improved, reaching 0.0042%, meaning that traders with long positions are also willing to pay more to maintain exposure.
Positive stock prices often reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations of higher prices.
Cardano price prediction: ADA is still facing a lot of resistance
Despite the necessary improvements, Cardano is still technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, while maintaining a strong market cap.
Cardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)
The indicator is also trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the major downside remains below trend resistance near $0.207.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, which indicates neutrality without indicating overbought or oversold.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has changed slightly, indicating that the upward trend is slowing down, although the buying pressure remains too weak to warrant a sustained reversal.
As the bulls resume, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207–$0.208 (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
A good break above the region of $0.207-$0.208 would greatly increase the central sentiment of Cardano.
Below that, traders should look at the recent support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retesting the June 25 low of $0.1382.
Cardano’s core values are starting to diverge from its slick technical image. A surge in fish stocks, a rise in Open Interest, and positive cash prices indicate that confidence is slowly returning, while van Rossem’s upcoming hard fork provides another boost.
