Bitcoin Tests at $63K as Long Holders Sell at a Loss

Bitcoin it is testing the $63,000 level, weighed down by a flight from risky assets and continued selling from long-term holders who have lost their money.

Bitcoin was changing hands at around $63,020 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day and 50% below the record high of $126,080 set in October, on CoinGecko data.

The token failed to touch $65,000 on Wednesday and fell to $62,640 intraday. That broke below the “$64,500 Put Wall” associated with this week’s options — a large group of interest that was “short-term support,” Tim Sun, senior analyst at Hashkey, said. Decrypt.

Macro squeeze

The level of risk in the broader markets has “reduced significantly,” Sun said, with global stocks under pressure and semiconductor and AI-related stocks slowing. This pressure isn’t just confusing crypto sentiment, he added — it’s also reducing Bitcoin’s visibility. Despite this, the derivatives market shows “there is no increase in profit,” the sale is focused on the spot.

Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, read the decline in similar terms, calling it “a huge loss of risk rather than a loss of real crypto values.” Bitcoin has grown “very sensitive to the environment,” he said Decryptand rate expectations, global uncertainty and the shift in short-term policy guidance. The price and underlying movements are sending “slightly conflicting signals,” he added — the overnight move looks bearish, but the upside is less likely than the headline suggests.

Old money hit the sell side

Constant pressure comes from long-term owners. More than 65% of the money flowing into the exchange with long-term holders is realizing a loss, according to Glassnode– a reading that said it was consistent with the previous bear market, where the group “dominated the sell side before exhaustion.” Until the sector is broken, “market pressure from high-end buyers remains a major force in the exchange.”

The sun sees the same on the chain. Investors who have been holding for a year or two are “slowly accepting losses and exiting,” he said – a wave that has hindered recovery, especially since Bitcoin’s decline remains weak even after boosting the US inflation report.

ETF demand is not enough—yet

The short-term return of buying ETFs did not break the bottom of the price. After an outflow of $425 million on Monday, US Bitcoin ETFs took in $181 million on Tuesday and $108 million on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors– a “slight recovery” that wasn’t enough to lift the market, Sun said. The fund has raised nearly $51 billion since its launch in 2024.

Hathorn calls it a very encouraging conversion. The return of cash flows after the outflows have increased shows that “long-term investors are returning to the market,” he said – an early sign, to him, that institutional interest is reviving.

Both Sun and Glassnode have shown early signs that heavy trading is about to end. Sun said that “the number of withdrawals among long-term holders has started to rise,” while losses have started to decrease. Glassnode cited CryptoVizart’s opinion that bear markets are usually “sustainable” until holders of a year or two have sold off.

In the absence of “major external shocks,” Sun said, the decline would likely be limited, with weak retail sales and a gradual increase establishing a “choppy bottom” for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the money hitting the exchange still comes mostly from investors who bought near the top—and until that disappears, Glassnode argued, that’s the biggest part of the market.