Morning Minute: Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Everyone on HIP-4 Upgrade

Morning Minute is a daily newspaper written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not reflect those of Decrypt.

GM!

Today’s top stories:

• Crypto majors are a little green as oil is falling; BTC at $64.6k
• PUMP leads the week’s movers, rising 26% as its keynote begins
• Hyperliquid to release unlicensed prediction markets that need 500k fixed HYPE
• Michael Saylor calls BIP-110 “a bad idea”
• Pudgy Penguins has launched plushie toys in Target stores across the US

🎲 Hyperliquid Opens Prediction Markets to Everyone in HIP-4 Loud

Hyperliquid he is taking prediction markets without permission.

The exchange said the latest improvement in HIP-4, which started “trading” in May, will allow anyone to post a market prediction on stage. Currently these markets are completely managed by the official, and Hyperliquid says that going forward “there will be” less than 10 markets that are managed by the official per year, and the rest are open to the general public. It comes out on the testnet first, then the mainnet.

Anyone who wants to start a market has to invest 500,000 HYPE (~$30M), a large portion that can be reduced if the authorities rule that the market is mislabeled or incorrectly set up. In exchange, the sender earns up to 50% of the market’s sales. And so is the economy that lies behind it illegally: put real skin in the game, get paid for the good markets, lose your share for the bad ones. It is a very different model from Polymarket and Kalshi, where the platform refers to every market from top to bottom.

It’s a timely move, as the forecast markets just had a very big summer. The World Cup helped the segment reach $50B in June, and July is at a record high ($37B so far). Of that $50B, Kalshi is the clear market leader with $33B (66% market share). Hyperliquid just made $176M – so they have their work cut out for them to make a splash in this sector.

Hyperliquid’s solution is to keep the board open, turning the futures markets into an unlicensed one instead of a fixed product. But it is not a suspicious platform, it is Hyperliquid that has already started to turn DEX-volume records, recording the warnings of JPMorgan about its risk to Circle, and forcing both the SEC and the CFTC. If the illegal model works, it can help them create a real explosion. We will find out soon.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors closed the week green 2-5%; BTC +3% at $64,6k; ETH +6% at $1,885; SO + 1% at $76.60; HYPE -7% at $60.80
• PUMP (+28%)PI (+22%) and INJ (+10%) led the week’s top leaders
• Oil -4% at $80 after progress on Iran negotiations; Gold +1% at $4,024
• The future they are green as oil is being sold; DOW +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7%
• Michael Saylor called Bitcoin’s BIP-110 proposal “a bad idea,” arguing that an anti-spam system would set up a monitoring system and that “the products being offered are more dangerous than they actually are”
• Galaxy Digital signed a 15-year naming convention renaming the Texas Tech football stadium “Galaxy Stadium,” expanding the crypto march into college sports
• Project Eleven he revealed the way allowing users to verify ownership of a wallet even if quantum computers can access the private keys
• The GENIUS Act it’s only been a year and the authorities have lost their time to write the laws, although the system will come into force by July 2028.

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• Company recommendations Bitcoin ETFs saw $132M in total revenue Friday and ended with $75M in earnings for the week; ETH ETH saw $37M in entry on Friday and ended with $105M

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders he was mostly flat or green last week; DOGE though, SHIB -1%, PEPE +5%, PENGU +4%, TRUMP +1%, BONK -23%
• Robinhood chain led by Stonkbroker (+180%), REAL (+200x) and FOX (+70%); Cashcat +22% to $72M
• Leaders of Solana including AVA (+ 30%) and Cubeman (+ 85%); ANSEM +5% to $198M

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• PUMP Icon for Pump.fun leading alt movers, up 26% for the week since its launch
• Cross-chain protocol Allbridge it was suspended after using a $1.65 million loan which hacked its Solana pool shares, the latest in a string of DeFi attacks

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• Directors of NFT they were a little red; Punks even at 32 ETH, BAYC -2% at 8.65 ETH, Pudgy -5% at 4.06 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 188 HYPE
• Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%) led the top movers
• Pudgy Penguins it was officially established their premium toys in Target stores across the US