If you think that Bitcoin will close in July where the forecast markets are expecting, you may want to think again.
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin is already up more than 13% in July, putting it on the path of a strong return every month from the 16,8% rally in 2022. The move above $66k has strengthened the bullish sentiment, with Polymarket now the price of 33% chance of BTC closing July above $70k.
Taken together, the monthly strength of ROI and the break of Bitcoin above the main resistance level indicate that the market predictions may be very far from their expectations. However, the path to $70k is still unclear.
One level to watch is $69k, which is where the Short-Term Holder (STH) price is. Since this is the purchase price of recent owners, it has become a very important property. If BTC trades in this range, many STHs can start taking profits, increasing selling power.
The next question is Bitcoin Cash (BTC) the rental side is strong enough to take the food.
So far, the answer seems to be yes. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs entered seven straight days, bringing in more than $700 million last week.
Add an increasing number of whales to the mix, and the marketing side looks strong enough to take a profit, opening the door to $70k and joining Polymarket’s challenges.
That said, the Bitcoin rally is not driven by technology alone. The macro background is very important. With the macro FUD starting to build, the focus now shifts to whether this storm can overcome what has been proposed.
If they do, Bitcoin’s next resistance may come from the upside rather than the charts.
Bitcoin’s $70k breakout faces a major test
July’s Bitcoin rally does not happen in isolation.
In fact, some products have seen very strong movements. Technically, oil has been one of the best performers, rising more than 25% this month.
Polimamarket difficulties he had just given oil a 34% chance of breaking above $90 per barrel at the end of July, but the market has already passed that level, oil is now selling at around $93 per barrel.
In light of this, Bitcoin’s push to $66k shows resilience, supported by steady ETF inflows. But the key question is whether this demand can withstand a rise in macro pressure.
Oil can be part of the confusion. Treasury yields across 10-year and 30-year maturities have risen to multi-month highs, and the 30-year yield is close to the last seen during the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
From a macro perspective, rising yields make safe-haven assets look more attractive, while higher oil prices raise concerns about near-term inflation. Together, this shows that investors are becoming more cautious, creating risk for risky assets like Bitcoin.
Based on this, the technical implementation of Bitcoin becomes very important.
As the chart above shows, BTC is nearing a key resistance area around the Short-Term Holder (STH) price detection zone. With macro FUD building, this level can trigger profit taking. So far, ETF inflows have helped absorb the trading pressure, but if that changes, Bitcoin’s July target could face a major blow.
