Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin may still be at risk of setting new lows later this year, pointing to the history of previous bear markets.
In a recent update on YouTube, Cowen he investigates the time difference between the major declines in the previous lines, which suggests that the current market may not be in danger.
“In 2014, Bitcoin went down in April and the next low didn’t reach October,” Cowen says, noting that the gap between those lows was about 174 days.
He said that in 2018, the market saw the same pattern, with an average of 143 days between key lows, followed by another 147-day period before settling down.
Cowen points out that even an open-ended process often takes months.
“In terms of how long it took for it to produce the lows, it took about half a year,” he explains, referring to previous movements.
Looking at the latest data, they show that in 2022 it took about “140 days” to cool down in June. In comparison, the current cycle may still be early in that period.
“How long has it been since February went down? We’re on day 88.”
Based on history, Cowen warns that another crisis is likely.
“Who knows what will happen in 3 months? Who should know? I mean, there is a chance that Bitcoin will find a new low at the end of this year, just like it did in previous bear markets.”
He also cautions investors not to misinterpret extended rallies as confirmation of a new bull.
“You can have rallies that go on for months that keep people coming back, that makes them FOMO, but that doesn’t mean it’s any different than other bear markets that we’ve seen.”
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