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- Bitcoin has spent five months below its key price point, a zone Glassnode describes as a price point.
- Long-term holders now account for nearly half of all online losses.
- ETF outflows have slowed, although mutual fund sales are still a fraction of last year.
- Analysts’ intentions for the descent of the cycle range from deep danger to the fact that the bottom is behind us.
Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its current low, but recovery is not yet confirmed, according to a Glassnode report titled “Ground Floor Construction“Published on Wednesday. The chain analysis company shows that the market has sold below its two highest watch levels for five months, while long-term owners sold the metal at a price not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market. The price, currently around $ 62,000 after jumping from $ 500 to $ 58,006 a week ago to $ 506,006,06,40,06,06,000,000 to 58,000 last week.Real Market Mean at $76,600 and the long term price at $72,200 until the buyers take the shares again, Glassnode takes part in every rally as a suspect.
Why long-term holders are running the biggest risk since December 2022
The most interesting change in the data involves investors who sell last-minute. Glassnode found that long-term owners are the most responsible for losses in the market, a share that has risen from 15% in early February to 43%. Most of these funds were purchased near the October 2025 interest rate of $126,000, which occurred during the lean months, and are now being sold weakly by owners who are tired of waiting.
The company’s long-revised index hit nearly $280 million in daily losses, its biggest reading since December 2022, marking the second sell-off in this decline. Unlike the first wave, this one showed no clear signs of abating. In 2022, the last price of the old currency was ahead of the real price that went down in a few weeks, but the lows only made when the selling got tired. The tide is still flowing.
The bottom is horizontal. Glassnode expert Chris Beamish wrote at the beginning of July that long-term weeders have returned to accumulate the net through wallet cohorts, including organizations holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, and that more Bitcoin is now living at a loss than a profit for the first time this drawdown, about 10.839 million .2 million BTC profit in the water under the water. The same group is simultaneously selling old, deep-water coins and buying new ones at current prices. Supply is changing hands, which is what is visible on the chain.
| Metric | Current reading | Story |
|---|---|---|
| Real Market Facts | $76,600 | The price has been below it since the beginning of February |
| Long-term fixed cost | $72,200 | The first refusal of any attempt to recover |
| LTH share of losses incurred | 43% | From 15% at the beginning of February |
| Peak daily LTH earned losses | $280 million | Highest from December 2022 |
| Guaranteed Value (lower box) | ~$53,000 | The bottom line is that sales are growing |
| Option to put / call OI ratio | 0.56 | The lowest rate for 2026 |
Wall Street pulled $4.5 billion in June, so the bleeding slowed
Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $4.5 billion in June, their worst month since inception in January 2024and BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $3.55 billion of outflows, according to data written by The Block.
The speed of the withdrawal is very low. Glassnode reported that daily volume peaked at $193 million in early June and has since fallen to $88.9 million per day, although outflows continue. Daily ETF trading volume has been between $650 million and $950 million, far less than the $4.4 billion daily recorded in October 2025. About 80% of the trading volume has changed hands. That drop looks like capture on the chart and like indifference on the trading desk. Data trends improved at the beginning of the month, though: SoSoValue posted a new output since July 2, which was the most consistent print since it started in May.
Investors stopped short but still paid for protection
Many decisions pull in two directions at this point. The bitcoin put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level since 2026, meaning that traders have more call options than puts. The long-term rush is over. At the same time, options traders continue to pay high prices for downside protection, and Bitcoin trades about 6% below the options market of $66,000 max pain level.
The put/call ratio measures how the position is divided between bearish and bullish contracts, while the skew shows what traders pay for each side. A low rating with a high price point describes a market where almost no one bets on risk, yet no one believes enough to drop their insurance. That combination is seen late in bear markets, after the shorts have taken advantage and before real desire has arrived.
Where the experts put down the pace
The predictions that have circulated among analysts have been surprisingly widespread:
- Stifel Financial – $38,000 target. Chief Equity Strategist Barry Bannister drew a The history of Bitcoin since 2010 adding to the recent trend, the opposition to the Fed’s tight policy and the strong correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq confirm further declines.
- K33 survey – already under $60,000. Research director Vetle Lunde says the 2025 cattle market was smaller than in the past, making the 80%-plus fall unexpected, with a combined issue between $60,000 and $75,000.
- Willy Woo and other cycle analysts put their starting time at the end of October 2026, which would equate to about 12 months of 2018 and 2022 bear markets tested from the October 2025 peak.
Three signs that can confirm the bottom
Glassnode’s design defines what authentication needs, and none of these three requirements have been fully met. Realizing the long-term loss should cool significantly from the current $280 million daily. ETF performance should be good for multiple sectors, not just to limit their losses. And price should recover first $72,200, then $76,600, on satisfactory volume instead of reducing the week’s decline. Until then, the company warns that Bitcoin may still fall to the Guaranteed Price near $53,000 if the sell-off reverses.
Single-season details work in the market’s favor in the coming weeks. Researchers QCP note that July has been one of the strongest months of Bitcoin, with a profit of about 7.5%, and early July combined with the return of ETF investors and the softening of the place to sell gives an example that something concrete is building. The next step is up to $66,000, where options are fixed. The way the price is towards the end of July will show whether the rise has buyers behind it or there are no sellers.
