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Summary
- Headline US CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year in June, down from 4.2% in May.
- Bitcoin gained about 2.7% in 24 hours, returning above $63,800.
- The prices for most weeks are now comparable to 2018 which was later revised.
- That cycle for 2018 returned all summer by September.
Bitcoin rose above $63,800 on Tuesday after The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices fell by 0.4% in June Compared to May, the annual inflation rate decreased to 3.5% from 4.2% last month. The reading came in softer than the markets, and the total amount of the crypto market rose within hours of the release, rising to $2.19 trillion, up to 2.05% per day.
The meeting itself is not unusual. What is attracting attention on the trading desks is a temporary comparison that the analyst Benjamin Cowen wrote shortly after publication, arguing that the price of Bitcoin in the last few weeks – not today’s movement – follows almost in step with what happened in the summer of 2018.
Why the 2018 comparison is about sequence, not price level
Cowen’s comparison it is based on the movement patterns of several weeks rather than where Bitcoin traded in 2018 versus now. In his reading, Bitcoin opened this summer with two consecutive green weeks, followed by a third red week leading to the CPI release, and then started the explosion that occurred at the end of July and the beginning of August. That jump didn’t work. By September, the fund had returned all of its gains.
In 2018, Bitcoin started in late June/early July with two green weeks.
Week 3 was red to CPI.
Bitcoin then rallied through late July/early August, before giving up all of its gains by September.
Similar setup today. pic.twitter.com/PAOaiEC2sq
Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) July 14, 2026
They are against the current chart following the same pattern: followed by the same two weeks, a red week around the publication of the CPI, and now the sound that, if the analog holds, can come out in three or four weeks before returning. Cowen points to an extensive weekly schedule leading up to and through this publication. The argument does not depend on the release of the CPI which causes today’s movement.
The comparisons are matches, not price predictions, and Cowen did not include a target or an exact date when the change could begin.
A High RSI Reading Interrupts a Bounce
| Metric | Reading | What it shows |
|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD exchange rate | $63,838 | Down from the $62,000 intraday low in the past two days |
| RSI (14, 30-min) | 76.21 | Best-selling site, top 70 |
| 24h change | +2.76% | A short movement, not just a slow grind |
| The total number of crypto market | $2.19T | Large participation, not given to Bitcoin |
Looking at the 30-minute BTC/USDT chart myself on TradingView, the RSI reading of 76.21 is a number worth watching. The RSI that is above 70 measures the speed and length of its price in a small window, and calculating this usually means that the movement happened so quickly that a break or a pull is common before the next leg, whatever the method may be. This does not mean that the jump is unacceptable, but reading this explains why some traders see this rally as a short-term event rather than a confirmation of a trend change.
Where 2018 Analog Can End
This estimate also jumps the market that does not exist in 2018. Spot Bitcoin ETFs were only launched in January 2024, and this year they acted as real price drivers and not footnotes. US Bitcoin ETFs broke an eight-week outflow streak with a $197 million net inflow for the week ending July 10, led by a $209 million one-day inflow in IBIT BlackRock on July 6 – but the recovery was short-lived. On July 13, the scene changed dramatically, according to Farside Investors datashedding $424.7 million in one session as IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC both posted their biggest outflows in weeks. This type of whiplash has no parallel in 2018, when Bitcoin traded on the spot and futures demand without a regulatory fund that could pull large amounts of money in or out within days. A repeat of the 2018 model may require the movement of the ETF to settle in the analog window; the current form – a short-term exile that was erased as quickly as it was created – shows that stability has not yet been reached.
The price also varies. Cowen’s analog of 2018 took place in the middle of the upswing, when the tightening of regulations was a general economic storm. The current correction is made by smoothing the inflation data and moving the expectations of the Fed policy, which is a different way to react to the price even if the weekly candle looks the same. Chart comparisons alone do not show these differences, as structural analysis ignores the driving factors.
Changes Only Seen If the ETF’s Trend Remains Negative
If the 2018 analog plays out the way Cowen predicts, the next three to four weeks will see Bitcoin extend its current breakout, with a reversal only visible around September. This means that the shape of the ETF is as important as the calendar – and the change on July 13 is already against a positive explosion, regardless of what the plan for 2018 shows. Traders working in the short-term can see the recent RSI reading as a reason to carefully widen positions instead of chasing a move. Long-term holders have little reason to take the CPI print either way, since the analog is about weather forecasting in a multi-week pattern, not a fundamental change in Bitcoin.
The next publication that is important in this regard is the July CPI release, expected in the middle of August, which will show whether the softening of inflation is an event or a month, and whether the weekly price index continues to follow the establishment of 2018 or leave.
