Bitcoin has underperformed against other “risky” assets this year – and if history is anything to go by, its price could drop to $38,000 by October.
That’s according to the new report by NYDIG, which suggests that the economic downturn is slowing down to provide mechanics rather than risk assumptions.
The price of Bitcoin in the past has moved with technology stocks but 2026 has been different: AI-related investments have risen while crypto markets have fallen. Bitcoin recently traded at $64,809, down nearly 30% on the year and about 50% below its October all-time high of $126,080.
“Bitcoin’s decline in 2025-2026 brings back a four-year record, as the timing and structure are very similar to the previously established years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 although the path is not exactly the same,” the report read.
NYDIG revealed that Bitcoin’s performance so far makes it a very difficult commodity – losing to the US treasury, silver, and currencies like the Swiss Franc.
It added that if the price of Bitcoin could match other challenges – such as the bear market of 2022 – “a round that could go down to around $38k-$39k” was possible.
The good news: Bitcoin had a very volatile year in 2025, and some experts believe that this year’s decline may be less than previous bear markets.
Is Bitcoin digital gold?
NYDIG added that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold peaked in the second quarter of 2026, when both commodities sold off.
Bitcoin has been associated with precious metals in the past and Bitcoiners have said that the top digital currency is “digital gold.”
But the economy last year was largely tied to US equities – especially technology stocks.
NYDIG added that some products were purchased in the second quarter of 2026, when the so-called downloads decreased. Traders in 2025 talked about “low trade” as a hot way to fight against the dollar – and other fiat currencies – losing value.
Bitwise he said in a report last week that when Bitcoin closed Q2 2026 in its deepest and longest fall since the last bear market, the conditions are in place for a quick recovery, with regulators passing crypto-friendly laws.
NYDIG added that market access CLARITY Act “He’s a great contributor to the digital economy.”
“For Bitcoin, the price of CLARITY is lower than that of altcoins and crypto equities, but the financial implications are still important because a clear system of the US market would benefit all companies,” it said.
