Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that Circle could reach a value of $75 billion by 2030, setting a long-term plan that focuses on the establishment of a stablecoin instead of short-term noise.
In his own weekend memoHougan structured Circle’s value around three variables: stablecoin market size, USDC market share, and the company’s long-term margin. Using what he described as conservative thinking, he took the $1.9 trillion stablecoin market at the end of the decade, with Circle having a 25% share and making a margin of 0.8% after distribution fees.
That would translate to about $3.8 billion in revenue and $2.7 billion in net income, which Hougan said would help calculate about $75 billion using the same multiple.
The memo comes later Shares in circulation fell more than 20% the second. The drop followed reports that lawmakers are considering provisions in the CLARITY Act that would reduce incentives for stablecoin sites. Those incentives have been a major driver of USDC distribution through partners. By Wednesday morning, the stock was up about 2% on the day, trading at around $103.
Hougan did not directly comment on the price drop or legal details. Instead, he emphasized that the establishment of a stablecoin is mainly driven by the requirements, including fast payments, global availability, and integration with financial systems, not productivity.
He also spoke about Circle’s position in regulated markets, noting that USDC has about a quarter of all stablecoins and the largest share of regulated capital markets. This placement can be very important if the rules are pushing money to those who are offered.
