Bitcoin (BTC) has shown resilience in the midst of the US-Iran war, rising by 12% since February 28. As uncertainty grips global markets, one question continues to dominate the minds of investors: has Bitcoin already found the bottom, or are there more challenges ahead?
In an interview with BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, reflected on where the market is headed.
When Will Bitcoin Bottom?
Cowen explained that the cycle time for Bitcoin has been the same. He realized that, weighed against two cycles have passedBitcoin rallied within a week of the previous cycles peak.
Based on this model, Cowen expects the bottom to reach about one year from the top.
“The base case should just be that it’s going to be down when the other two cycles are down, which is just over a year from October 2026,” Cowen told BeInCrypto.
He acknowledged how Bitcoin could end at the end of May. But in order for this to happen, there must be an underlying phenomenon that the middle ages create.
As long as Bitcoin’s annual return remains in the old deviation range middle ageCowen sees no reason to change from the October thesis.
“And if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and you compare it with the average years before the midterm, you throw a standard deviation from the average. As long as we are in this group, it is difficult to think that we will leave the group, especially this at the beginning of the middle of the year,” He explained.
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The show is related to other market concepts. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, noted that the Bitcoin cycle peak occurred 534 days after April 2024 and a half, shorter cycle peak compared to the previous one.
Taking this decay path around, his analysis shows that the market may show up about 912 to 922 days after the end, pointing to the end of September or the beginning of October 2026.
Estimates from CryptoQuant strongly support this ideawith models showing a drop between June and December 2026, with September to November as the most likely window.
Why This Cycle Continued With Apathy, Not Euphoria
One of Cowen’s key points is that although Bitcoin’s peak in the current trend is consistent with previous periods, it emerged under very different circumstances.
He said that in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin went up amid a lot of trading excitement. This too, it started a rotation in altcoins after that.
This time, people’s interest in crypto has been declining since 2021. Bitcoin went up a lot, and as a result, the usual volatility of altcoins did not happen.
“This is a cycle where Bitcoin went above the pessimism rather than the euphoria, and the only time it went above the pessimism was in 2019. When you’re above the pessimism, you don’t have the same volatility,” he said.
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Overall, Cowen maintained his view that the four-year cycle remains unchanged. Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,831, more than 40% below its October 2025 high of around $126,000. If Cowen’s analysis is there, further a decline may be in the future before the cycle finds its place.
