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Ahmed Barakat
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CryptoNews Editorial Team
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June CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month, the lowest monthly decline since April 2020, raising the annual rate to 3.5% against the Dow Jones consensus of 3.8%, and Bitcoin responded with a quick push after the publication. The data hit is real.
The energy index fell by 5.7% in June, while oil and gas prices both fell by more than 9%, accounting for the highest monthly volatility. Take this away, and the picture is not so clear: the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was published monthly at a rate of 2.6% year-on-year against the 2.9% forecast. The functions of the old powers were flat; accommodation rose 0.1%; transport services fell by 0.3%.
This distinction is directly related to the Federal Reserve’s policy because policymakers track inflation and employment as a long-term indicator. The gasoline-powered title doesn’t move the needle, and neither does its market value prices it shines.
As of now, the Fed is expected to hold its July 28-29 FOMC meeting and then give a 25 basis point hike in September, keeping the overnight rate at 3.5%-3.75% for now before moving higher.
This tone reinforces what the stock market is already pricing in. Interest rates will remain high until fundamentals and activity data show a clear path, not one-month strength.
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CPI Positioning and Bitcoin ETF Flow Backdrop
Bitcoin entered Tuesday’s press with the latest strength, with traders looking to see if the inflation data will change the Fed’s approach quickly to maintain the risk of consumption.
Bitcoin and crypto market commentary ahead of the CPI release pointed to ETF movement and on-chain development as the basis for supporting the move. Pre-CPI analysis also indicated that bullish positioning could be at risk if key expectations change.
A warning flag comes from the results: the investment can quickly disappear as big expectations rise, although the headline print looks positive for crypto at the moment.
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Key Stages and the Future Story of Bulls and Bears
Traders are focused on near-term resistance near $64,000, while technical analysts are looking for a sequence of higher targets if interest rates are there after a CPI-driven pop.
Below that, $62,000 is the critical risk point. Below, traders expect a reversal of previous support, including about $60,000. Altcoins are also having their most watched sessions, with ETH on the verge of rejecting around $1,800 after the June selloff.
Thomas Perfumo, an economist at Kraken, wrote that the macro is read correctly:
“Today’s documents, read carefully, are more reason for cautious optimism than fear,” adding that “the increasing influence of inflation is diminishing.” In the future, he explained, inflation will continue to decline in the second half of 2026, maintaining the “policy of central banks” is the risk factor.
But this requires several months of data to confirm the trend. Exchange stored data with on-chain metrics supporting the establishment, but the pressure-driven CPI publication does not rule out the Fed’s September readings.
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