Bitcoin is trading below $60,000 at the end of June 2026, about 53% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,200. The long rally from March to May gave the bulls a brief reason for optimism, but prices fell.
According to the new report from Fidelity, the recent decline has signs of a cold crypto season – and history shows five factors that can cause it.
Fidelity says that bitcoin has made bull market peaks and bottoms in almost four years since 2011. With the last bear market coming in November 2022, the model shows a possible place near November 2026 – if the cycle holds. The to argue like bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is intact is still working, and some experts to argue the bear market is about to end when some are not really aware of it.
Bitcoin cycle for four years
The rotation engine, Fidelity explains, is a bitcoin throttling system – a fixed rule that cuts mining rewards in half every four years, reducing new circulation. The latest half in April 2024 lowered the block reward to 3.125 BTC.
If demand stabilizes or increases against supply, prices can rise. The company cautions, however, that the cycles are far apart and should be used for big-picture analysis rather than actual sales timing.
Laws
Clear regulation preceded previous bull markets, according to Fidelity. SEC images acceptance of spot bitcoin ETPs in January 2024 was a notable moment, helping to push bitcoin to new heights. Now, the company is pointing out that the CLARITY Act is one of the proposed laws to be reviewed.
The bill, which would divide oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC and give the companies clearer rules, it has passed The House in 2025 and has advanced through the Senate Banking Committee. Obedience is is expected on July 17and the crypto industry is watching closely.
If it becomes law, Fidelity says it could reopen domestic operations that have been held back by legal uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Policy
Loyalty indicates a consistent, if consistent, relationship between interest rate reductions and crypto price gains. Lower currencies make borrowing cheaper and investors more comfortable taking risks – and crypto has already benefited. The opposite has also been true when prices are rising.
While inflation remains a concern in mid-2026, the Fed’s path remains unclear. The company notes that any price appreciation may come soon after the announcement of a lower price, as markets tend to move in anticipation.
Application class
NFTs and memecoins turbocharged the bulls of 2019-2021, according to Fidelity – the highest interest rate can be seen coming. The company identifies three things that will show the most interest in 2026: real-world investment, AI-related crypto infrastructure, and stablecoins, which have been rapidly followed. section of the GENIUS Act in 2025. But Loyalty also leaves the door open to things that no one is seeing yet – historically, the main causes have been surprising.
Establishment of parentage
Fidelity acknowledges that this is not a new issue. When public companies first disclosed crypto in 2020, it created a new story that helped drive prices to record highs. The established of the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 had a similar effect, helping to push bitcoin above $126,000. But a permanent settlement in 2026 did not mean a new bull market.
However, Fidelity says an unexpected move could change the calculus. The company of the Magnificent Seven announcing a major role in bitcoin – something that has not been seen since Tesla bought it in 2021, many of whom sold it later – could create a new story. Likewise, a global crisis could drive institutions to bitcoin as a hedge, something that has not happened in the ongoing war in Iran.
