Two markets moved in the same direction. When the United States and Iran confirmed a peace agreement to end their war of almost four months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil fell to a three-month low – while Bitcoin and all the top 10 crypto markets put a green week. The reason is the same for both: the single biggest global risk weighing on global markets is disappearing.
Here’s a full breakdown of the oil crisis, the latest developments in the US-Iran war, and how the top 10 stocks performed over the past 7 days.
Oil Breakdown Three Months Low
Power cuts have a major impact on energy markets. U.S. crude closed down 4.8% at $80.75 a barrel, while global Brent crude fell 4.7% to $83.17 – the lowest closing price for all benchmarks since the first week of March, when the war broke out.
The slide was not a one-day event. Oil had already fallen more than 6% last week in anticipation of a deal, meaning the market had driven ahead of the news. Heating oil, the jet fuel tract, fell more than 3.5%, and heavy fuel oil fell more than 2.5%.
The channel is the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil passed through the tunnel before the tankers collapsed in early March, and its closure led to one of the world’s biggest oil supply disruptions. With Trump allowing the free reopening of the strait and lifting the US military blockade, traders are pricing in a return to Gulf power.
- Warning: prices probably won’t drop much from here. Crude is still high this year, and experts warn that getting things back to pre-war levels will take time. About 600 ships – mainly carrying oil and LNG – remain in the Gulf, unable to pass through Hormuz due to mine threats and high military insurance costs. Ship owners and insurers will need to confirm the route is safe before shipping can resume, and clearing the river of mines could take weeks.
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The latest on the US-Iran War
The diplomatic portrait was confirmed at the end of the week but still has some open questions:
- The deal is here, the signing is set for Friday. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif – the lead mediator – announced that both sides had ended military operations in all areas, including Lebanon. The official signing ceremony is expected to take place on June 19 in Switzerland.
- Trump confirmed and reopened Hormuz. The president declared that the treaty was over, approved the free opening of the strait, and ordered the withdrawal of US naval protection.
- Extracting oil from Iran. The US is reportedly offering Iran a 60-day window to sell its oil – essential oil and natural gas supplies account for about 60% of Iran’s government revenue.
- Inconsistencies still exist. Iranian media said that Hormuz will only be without mobile phones for 60 days, after which Iran and Oman will manage the situation. Neither side has released a full statement, which means the wording is still fluid.
The takeaway: the framework is there and the markets see it as real, but the June 19 signing in Switzerland is the event that turns a goal into a commitment. Until then, expect head-driven fluctuations in both power and dangerous loads.
Top 10 Crypto: 7-Day Performance (Excluding Stablecoins)
When oil sank, crypto rose. The promotion of global circulation returned the risk to the digital economy, with every major name in the green in the next 7 days. Here’s how the top 10 (excluding stablecoins Tether and USDC) fared:
- Bitcoin ($BTC): ~$66,389 — ▲ 2.93% (7d). BTC regained the $65,000 level, recovering from the war-driven selloff that dragged it down for months.
- Ethereum ($ETH): ~$1,719 — ▲ 1.89% (7d). ETH remained above $1,700, although its weekly gains remained behind the top beta names.
- $BNB: ~$612 — ▲ 1.08% (7d). Steady, slow progress associated with extensive recovery.
- $XRP: ~$1.23 — ▲ 0.89% (7d). Small weekly profit between adults, but still green.
- Solana ($SOL): ~$70 — ▲ 4.62% (7d). A great standout, leading the group every week as the passion for the high beta returned.
- TRON ($TRX): ~$0.319 — ▼ 2.24% (7d). The only laggard, slipping on the week despite the broader market strength.
An example is the index of risk in the rotation: high betas, speculative names (SOL leading at +4.62%) outperform large caps (BTC, ETH, BNB), while the index of the top 20 market rose by about 5% per week.
Crypto Market Changes: What to Watch Next
The split of oil, crypto-up tells one story: the market is returning a country with a low risk of war. Cheaper energy reduces coastal inflation, maritime blockades restore global trade flows, and the removal of a global currency frees the risk of commodities such as Bitcoin that were heavily traded during the war.
But this is a support convention built on an agreement, not a signature. Three things to watch out for in the coming week:
- Signing on June 19 in Switzerland. A clean design ensures mobility; a slide – as previous “closer” headlines have shown – could reverse oil prices and crypto prices.
- Hormuz is reopening in action. My consent is an insurance trust, not a declaration, that determines whether the oil is going down.
- Crypto compliance. Whether Bitcoin can build above $65,000 and Solana can extend its lead will show whether this is a sustained cycle or a short-term run from Extreme Fear.
For now, the message from both markets is consistent: war wages are coming out, and dangerous goods are taking a break.
