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- XLM is down 2% on Thursday after the 100-day EMA ended its short-term recovery.
- XLM futures Open Interest is steady, but the decline in longs and shorts is showing bias.
XLM reverses momentum when the mainstream market loses faith
Stellar (XLM) extended its losses on Thursday, the symbol is struggling to recover as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $ 0.1798 continues to test the efforts, encouraging small bearish sentiments.
Opinions on the derivatives market also show the growth of lower expectations. Data from Coinglass shows that XLM futures Open Interest (OI) remained high at $114.70 million after a sharp rise from $99.45 million earlier this week, indicating steady trading activity despite low prices.
However, bearish positioning continues to dominate. The long-term ratio is currently sitting at 0.7632 – a level that has been below 1 since mid-January – indicating that traders are favoring short positions and expecting a further increase in XLM.
Technical prediction: XLM may drop below $0.1700
The 4-hour XLM/USD chart remains stable and active, indicating that the bears have recently regained control.
XLM is trading below the 100-day EMA while still holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669.
Momentum indicators are still showing some signs of resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving around 62 in the 4-hour period, remaining above neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to trade above its line, indicating that buyers have not lost control.
However, the risk remains high. If XLM falls below the support of the EMA of 50 at $0.1669, the indicator can move to the necessary consolidation area at $0.1471 – the level that has been there since the beginning of February.
On the upside, bulls need to push XLM above the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 to satisfy bullish sentiment.
A daily candle that closes above that resistance could initiate a move towards the 200-day EMA near $0.2101.
