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Ahmed Barakat
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Galaxy Digital Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn reducing the company’s comparative advantage of the CLARITY Act passage in 2026 from 60% to 50% on June 26, referring to the limited calendar of the Senate and increasing the competition for the floor time, not unresolved disputes.
The drop marks the second cut in weeks, reversing the pressure seen in April after a slight increase to 75% following the Senate Banking Committee hearing in May.
This article is important to everyone who is following it crypto laws and market laws we are going to the second half of 2026. The law that passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, with 78 Democrats crossing the aisle, is now standing not in terms but in planning, and the window is closing fast.
Thorn’s writings put the matter clearly: With a shortened calendar and growing competition for floor time as drivers, a July vote is still possible but the path to 60 Senate votes is unclear.
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Clarity ACT: Senate Adjourned Until July 13, Leaving Weeks Before August
Design restrictions are straightforward. The U.S. Senate has adjourned until July 13, and the August recess creates a tight space that limits the floor time to about two to three weeks. Senate Majority Leader John Thune agreed to all suspensions without objection, meaning the court has already run out of time required by the CLARITY Act.
The Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee have yet to issue a joint statement, which is required for any vote. Until a unanimous Senate vote is sealed, Thune can’t coordinate the floor proposal, and without a commitment in early July, the bill will languish until September.
That is not a soft time; September puts the 2026 crypto regulations directly into the midterm election season, when bipartisan agreement on the market’s difficult trade has already broken down.
The Senate needs 60 votes for the CLARITY Act passage, which requires democracy to be bought. Competition ahead, FISA legislation, the National Defense Authorization Act, Trump’s house bill tied to the SAVE Act, and the rest to name, are all ahead of the crypto market in the queue.
Galaxy features are specific. If the Senate’s consensus statement is published on July 4, as Senator Cynthia Lummis has predicted, and Thune votes down before the end of the recess, Thorn said the odds could return to more than 60%. The building blocks are mostly in place: the bill establishes SEC/CFTC limits, introduces stricter blockchain tests for security groups, and adds federal AML responsibilities to digital asset intermediaries for the first time.
If no word is included or a commitment is not made by mid-July, the Galaxy’s plan points to another drop. The ethics, especially the anti-usury laws for government officials of crypto holdings, remain unstable after the Van Hollen amendment failed 11-13 in the committee, and the legislators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker both have seen the legalization of legalization as a way to help. That did not end; it is delayed.
Similar times in 2026 have consistently shown that prediction markets return faster than legal experts when the power of law is in place.
Polymarket brokers now rate the CLARITY Act passage at 41%, nine points below Galaxy’s 50%, down from 82% in February when the Senate calendar collapsed. This difference does not invalidate Thorn’s estimate, but it does show how public opinion has progressed against the July period.
The difference is worth it. The Galaxy is pricing Lummis’ July 4th target to work with leadership; Polymarket is prices at the base price of the Senate without taking action on the difficult legislation under the suppression calendar.
The CLARITY Act’s failure to clear the Senate this year will be no small setback. Senator Lummis warned that a miss in 2026 could lead to market regulations until 2030 or beyond, due to the possibility of room changes after November.
For participants awaiting the SEC/CFTC division of the bill, each week’s delay increases the uncertainty of negotiations for the central sector of the digital economy. The next hard sign to watch for: the publication of the Senate’s joint statement. His presence or absence in the first two weeks of July will determine whether 50% of the Galaxy will hold or be cut again.
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