The US has warned Iran that it will target infrastructure if there is no peace deal

The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has warned against targeting Iran’s interests in the absence of a peace deal. The US-Iran ceasefire as of April 21 remains at 8% YES, while the permanent peace agreement by April 22 is on 17.5% YES.

The April 21 ceasefire Risks remain low, with traders suspecting that the violence will end within five days. The April 22 peace treaty market, price on 17.5%shows little expectation of diplomatic success. The main movement is in the April 30 peace marketfrom 17% a week ago to 34.5%which points to the confidence of some traders in the decision at the end of the month.

The combined 24-hour USDC in both markets was $699,190. It costs $16,401 to move April 22 ceasefire with five points, a sign of a dense book system. The biggest recent price move was a 4-point rise at 12:18 AM, either driven by speculation or one big order.

Hegseth’s comments point to a potential upside rather than a downside risk, so the near-fire markets remain depressed. The YES part of a ceasefire on April 21 to 8¢ he pays $1 if he decides, a 12.5x return. For this to happen, the change of embassy must be done within 5 days.

Check the CENTCOM statement for any central activity from Oman or Qatar. A planned diplomatic meeting or a change in tone from either side could move these markets.

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