The US military is patrolling the Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions

The US military is considering controlling another part of the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports, while Polymarket’s agreement on the Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30 will be at 0% YES.

The likelihood of traffic returning to normal by April 30 remains at 0% YES, meaning traders see no chance of a turnaround. Increasing the number of wars reduces the chances of social progress in the long run. The Declaring US military action against Iran by December 31, 2026 the contract is on 7.5% YES, down slightly from 8% 24 hours ago.

The possibility of US Strait control increases the chances of WTI Crude Oil hitting $150 in May. A military hike could cause further disruptions and raise oil prices, and contracts related to Polymarket reflect traders’ expectations of continued volatility.

For entrepreneurs, this is about constant conflict rather than about resolution. This statement indicates that there is no return to the Strait. The YES section on the declaration of war by December 31 is a price 7.5¢giving a 13.3x return if canceled. The low prices reflect speculative interest despite the market’s view that a declaration of war is unlikely.

Check CENTCOM’s military statements and any congressional guidelines for military authorizations. They may even be able to change what happens in these markets.

Get predictive market intelligence as a regular API feed. Early access.