
In short
- US President Donald Trump has said the world has “become like a casino” following the rise of prediction markets.
- A US soldier has been accused of using classified information to profit from betting on Maduro.
- Trump’s son, Donald Jr. he works as a consultant for Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday said he was not happy with the level of influence prediction marketsUS authorities have charged a soldier with using private communications to place profitable bets on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
“You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become like a casino and you look at what’s going on around the world in Europe and wherever they’re doing this betting. I don’t agree with that,” he said. he said reporters in the Oval Office.
Q: “People suspect that there is insider trading going on in these prediction markets around the war. Are you concerned?”
Trump: “The whole world, unfortunately, has become like a casino.” pic.twitter.com/gESZk6GF2Z
— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 23, 2026
“I don’t like it emotionally but it’s the way it is. I think I’m not happy about it,” Trump said, adding, “They’ve got all these sites, they’ve got these prediction markets. It’s a crazy world, it’s a very different world than it was.
His son, Donald Trump Jr., serves as an adviser to both Kalshi and Polimamarket and they have promoted its importance, especially during elections, saying that they can beat the traditional media by showing the results. A spokesman for Trump Jr. he said earlier CNN that they do not trade on the speculative markets and that they have not cooperated with the government on behalf of any company.
President Trump himself ran a casino empire in the 1980s bankruptcy list closed jobs.
Prediction market Myriad, owner Decryptparent company Dastan, Use the tools used in the history of USD1 provided by the DeFi platform supported by Trump World Liberty Financial as its permanent subsidiary.
A month of trading in the forecast markets to climb from about $1.2 billion in early 2025 to more than $20 billion by January 2026, with more than 800,000 unique wallets each month, according to TRM Labs. The content of these platforms is highly focused on politics, economic development and elections, which makes them a great monitor of real-world events.
The analysis of the prediction market is growing
Scrutiny of the company intensified this week after government critics cases disclosed against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army soldier accused of using military information about Maduro for profit.
Prosecutors say Van Dyke made more than $400,000 by trading on Polymarket contracts related to the possibility and timing of US intervention in Venezuela and the removal of Maduro from power. Officials say they were able to learn more about “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the operation that led to Maduro’s ouster in early January 2026.
From late December to late January, Van Dyke reportedly placed $33,000 on 13 bets, betting each time that US troops would enter Venezuela and that Maduro would be ousted before the end of the month. After the operation became public and the markets confirmed in its place, he withdrew large sums of money and took steps to avoid being identified, including trying to delete his account and move money through cryptocurrency channels, according to the indictment.
Department of Justice she scolded him and crimes including misuse of government secrets, wire fraud and product fraud. Officials stressed that the regulatory framework applies regardless of how the futures markets develop.
“Our men and women in uniform are trusted with specialized information to carry out their duties as safely and efficiently as possible, and they are not allowed to use this sensitive information for financial gain,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.
Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi have met them legal issues and enforcement in several jurisdictions, and critics argue that they operate like unlicensed gambling operations.
The companies, however, maintain that their products serve as financial instruments designed to aggregate information and predict futures rather than support traditional betting.
Decrypt reached out to the White House and Polymarket for comment, and will update this story when they respond.
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