US offers talks with Iran, Tehran sees what it wants

The US has extended the possibility of talks with Iran, which is now under consideration according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry. The US-Iran diplomatic summit on June 30 was postponed 16.1% YES, up from 9% yesterday.

Market performance

The market for embassies meeting space, closed as of June 30, now shows a consistent 16.1% YES for various space-related contracts. The biggest recent change was a four-point drop in the “no meeting” consensus, meaning traders are betting that a meeting will happen. The thin book of the market (only 141 needed to move the price 5 points) makes it easy to move from small spikes.

Why is it important?

In a peace deal, what happens is not understood. The market for a permanent peace agreement by April 30 is at 1.8% YES, down from 10% the previous day. Market on May 31 at 29.5% YES indicates that traders expect any deal to come later, not this month.

The difference between the diplomatic conference resolution (rising) and the imminent peace resolution (falling) tells a clear story: businessmen think negotiations can happen but doubt they will make a deal quickly.

For you to see

The daily USDC market capitalization is $6,833, while the market capitalization is at $275,178. The largest movement of one candle in the market was a rise of six points, indicating the impact of large trades.

The Iranian text has no details of time, place, or participants. The share of YES in the diplomatic conference market at 16 ¢ pays $ 1 if they confirm YES, the possibility 6.25x return. In order to justify the price, you must believe that a significant interaction will occur within the next 67 days. Look for information from the White House or the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, especially any confirmation of a planned meeting or information about the venue and participants.

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