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XRP traded near $1.11 on July 11, up 0.49% intraday but under three major trends, as weekly ETF outflows since May 1 remove a stable source of demand from an already declining market.
Essentials
- XRP spot ETFs posted $7.18 million weekly on July 10, the first after nine consecutive weeks of nearly $196 million.
- The open interest of Binance XRP fell from above $500 million in mid-June to $399 million by July 10, while the long-term closed rose 94% week over week.
- The XRP Ledger recorded 25,350 wallets, its second lowest day in 2026, making it the weakest new wallet since November 2024.
- XRP trades below the 50-day ($1.1648), 100-day ($1.2804), and 200-day ($1.4546)
US spot XRP ETFs generated $7.18 million in inflows last week on July 10, according to SoSoValue articlesending a nine-week streak that had grossed $196 million since the beginning of May. The update hits the market for a month’s worth of content and the network posts its quietest ratings of the year.
Spot Flows Entered a Growing Market
The most unusual data of the past week came from the service of Binance. CryptoOnchain expert posted on CryptoQuant that the exchange showed a special explosion in the movement of XRP between July 4 and July 8, reaching a peak of 64.9 million XRP of the outgoing money on July 7. In the reading of this expert, this movement of growth shows the reorganization of the aggressive capital rather than the opposition to new ideas, and the confusing interpretation of the data.
Binance’s open interest had already fallen from above $500 million in mid-June to $431 million by July 4 before dropping to $399 million by July 10, a drop of nearly 20% within a month. Long-term closings jumped 94% week-on-week, running 172% above their three-month average, while short-term closings did 53%. The pain in the market is almost always on the long side.
Money prices are the biggest source of friction in the dataset. After a brief reversal at the end of June, Binance coin recovered 266% for the week to 0.007 in the same analysis. The rise in funds against the open interest rate and the long-term promotion means that what is still paying for the growing funds in a shrinking market, the structure of CryptoOnchain’s historical documents has been at risk of reinvestment.
The Network is Quieter than the Price
Chain data eliminates the possibility of silent accumulation and removal of the source image. Sentiment wrote on X that the XRP Ledger only recorded 25,350 active wallets, the second daily reading of 2026, while the new wallet creation fell to 2,130, the weakest since November 2024. In Santiment’s analysis, traders seem to be “waiting for a real support instead of chasing another delayed interest after June.”
Visible metrics soften the image a bit without changing it. Transaction numbers are up about 3-4% over the past week and month, although they remain 21% below their three-month average, and the NVT ratio is down, which may indicate that network usage is stabilizing rather than worsening. Active addresses are still 11% below the three-month baseline. The bottom line is not the same as the bottom line, and no data shows the bottom line.
The Chart Compresses the Problem to One Level
XRP last July is drawing a base between about $1.01 and $1.05, the region that stopped the sale in early June and early July, and the breakout of this region stopped where it was supposed to: The push of July 5-6 to $1.17 was rejected by the decline of the 50-day SMA, now at $1.16. The price of $1.11 sits between the two markers, with the 100 day at $1.2804 and the 200 day at $1.4546 filling the top of both bars.
This arrangement creates an honest recovery attempt. Every mover that matters is above the price and below, which means that rallies will be met with lower prices. July’s rejection at the 50-day was the third failed attempt at a recovery since May, and each rose above the previous one.
A bullish trend requires certain things to happen in sequence. A daily close above the 50-day SMA near $1.16, followed by a successful retest, would be the first sign of stability in the downtrend since spring. The ETF’s move back to positive territory on the July 17 weekly print would be very important, as the nine-week high was the most sustained of all the declines. Santiment points to RLUSD’s growth, high-value services, and increased agency fees as incentives that could bring users back to the chain if interest rates improve.
The bearish things are equally concrete. A second consecutive week of ETF outflows may confirm the July 10 publication as a trend change rather than noise. At the bottom of the price, a daily close below the $1.05 support shelf could reveal the $1.01 July low, and losing that level could put XRP below $1 for the first time since November 2024. The financial structure is increasing the interest: if the premium wants to pay for the resumption of the high while the open interest continues to drain, the move could show a rapid instead of the 94% slow jump for the week small.
