About 70% of all closed markets on Polymarket listed under $10,000 in sales were reported between 2021 and the end of May 2026, CNBC analysis found.
These findings come as the prediction markets after a big rise, led by the FIFA World Cup of 2026. This difference shows how a small marquee team, not a broad platform, holds the most money.
Most Closed Polymarkets Sell Under $10,000
CNBC released closed market data from Polymarket’s Gamma API, which calculates notional volume on both sides of each transaction. The distribution came out very skewed.
Less than 10% of the closed markets took between $100,000 and $1 million for the stated goals. More than 45,000 markets, about 5% of the total, did not show the amount of the report.
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Bottles dominate at the end. Joshua Della Vedova, a marketing professor at the University of San Diego, found that more than 80% of the volume in the small markets of $10,000 came from bots.
He defined bots as wallets that make more than 50 transactions per day or more than 1,000 in total. According to his estimates, he earned about $1.2 million in markets under $10,000, but about $50.5 million in $1 million to $10 million.
This segment made up 38% of the bot’s total profit. Markets above $10 million added a another $35.1 million.
“They are making money in all markets,” Della Vedova said. “(Bots) make money from sales, so they tend to trade in these big markets, but they sell on all types.”
The report added that Kalshi he also wrote down the essentials the number of shallow markets, based on on-chain data analysis from Dune. However, unlike Polymarket’s Gamma API, Kalshi’s volume on Dune accounts for only one side of each transaction.
World Cup Bets Fuel Prediction Market Growth
The small picture of the market varies with the size of the subject. World Cup every week a large amount The market rose from $65 million in the week of June 1 to $5.4 billion by June 29, according to CryptoRank data.
The volume reached $ 5.6 billion in the week of June 22. Kalshi led the rise, showing how big sports events can drive the need for display sales.
The plant rests on the side of the thin tail. The fund focuses on a small group of high-quality businesses, while the mass market sees almost no activity.
BeInCrypto has reached out to Polymarket and Kalshi for comment.
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A note 45,000 Polymarket Markets Recorded Zero Trading Volume, CNBC Analysis Shows appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
