The price of bitcoin looks bad, but I’m buying it. The price may go down, it always does, but there is value in these shares, and they are piling up. I think it’s important to be honest about what I’m doing in the reviews I publish, and not just give the data away. And right now, the data is saying something that has only been said a few times in the history of Bitcoin.
Let’s cut to the chase:
- The Crosby Ratio Z-score has one of the lowest ratios in history.
- The RSI is at a level we have only experienced several times in bear markets.
- Bitcoin has dropped below its 200-week moving average.
- SOPR ranks in the bottom fifth of all historical readings.
- The Mayer Multiple is also in the bottom five.
Crosby’s score
The Crosby’s rate Z-score measures bitcoin price volatility and ranks it as Bitcoin volatility. It is not a fixed indicator as it changes as the market matures and becomes more volatile, making it applicable to any part of the Bitcoin history. The current reading is around -1.7. This means that 99.8% of all days in the history of Bitcoin registered a very low reading on this indicator.
Figure 1: Crosby Ratio Z-Score just dropped to one of the lowest values.
List of times this reading has been low: the recent low to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the COVID crisis in March 2020, and the 2018 market low. That’s right. Four times a decade of price history. Each of them became an opportunity to accumulate.
The RSI
The Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used indicators in all markets. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently in the lowest range. Previous events for these lows were the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 bear market low, the COVID crash, and the recent drop to $60,000.
Figure 2: Relative Strength Index hits record low.
Two independent indicators, measured in different ways, but they form a relatively short list of historical facts. This type of integration into all systems should not be completely eliminated.
Average Walking Week 200
The 200-Weeks Moving Average has been supporting a bear market throughout Bitcoin’s history. The only thing that mattered was the collapse of FTX at the end of 2022, which led to a slow but sharp recovery. Outside of that event, this level has been like the bottom every round.
Figure 3: Bitcoin is currently above its 200WMA.
Bitcoin has just dropped to the same level. Today’s prices are very low, making double flooring one of the most reliable designs in any market. The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin Realized Value change in the same area, adding weight as a support.
SOPR & The Mayer Multiple
The Amount of Applied Profit it is currently in the bottom fifth of all historical readings. This means that the number of losses incurred on the Bitcoin network, the rate at which owners are trading at a loss, is within 5% of anything we’ve ever recorded. The sales that have driven this move have been mostly short-term; precious days destroyed data ensures that long-term holders did not participate in this ban. These are short-term traders and positions that are being removed, not the criminals they admit.
Figure 4: The Spent Output Profit Ratio shows the severity of recent losses.
The Mayer Multiple, which measures bitcoin’s price relative to its 200-day moving average, is at one point below its fifth peak. When these two indicators have been declining at the same time, the chances of getting results have been exceptional. It has only happened a few times, and each event has been followed by a significant price appreciation.
Figure 5: The Mayer Multiple has reached levels corresponding to the previous bearish decline.
Brief explanation
I’ll be honest, the low power surprised me. I was expecting a pull from the $80,000 resistance, but the $70,000 move was bigger than expected. What didn’t surprise me was the outcome, because this kind of combination of technology, chain, and speed was already evident, and the market has consistently rewarded this calculation.
Can we go downstairs? Yes. The identified price does not fall below current levels and represents the next level of support if the lows are repeated. I am prepared for that event. But to remove all the emotion and look at what the data is saying, five independent indicators at the same time in the development sector, this is not the time to wait on the sidelines for a slightly better price.
Write to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more market information and analysis!
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your research before making any financial decisions.
