Bitcoin (BTC) may fall to $45,000 at the beginning of October 2026, according to an analysis that compares the current market with previous failures of crypto exchanges.
The prediction comes as Bitcoin is struggling to stay above $65,000 despite a recent recovery share ETF inputs and control of market sentiment.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $64,710, up about 0.9% over the past 24 hours. For the week, the stock rose 0.3%.
According to the analysis of TradingShot shared a TradingView post on July 24, the latest major industry development, the shutdown planned BitMEX after 11 years of operation, similar to the previous fall of the exchange that happened near the lows of the main cycle.
This analysis shows that the failures of high-quality exchanges have occurred repeatedly during bear markets.
For example, the fall of Mt. Gox in 2014, BitGrail in 2018, and FTX in 2022 all correspond to periods of extreme market volatility. Either way, Bitcoin finally established a major base before starting a long-term rally.
The latest comparison site on BitMEX has announced its closure. TradingShot argued that the event may indicate that the current market is approaching a similar stage of capitulation.
The analysis shows Bitcoin trading above its historical Realized Price Buy Zone, represented by the blue support band. Previous previous rounds were made in or near this area prior to recovery.
The technical structure of Bitcoin
Another indicator is Bitcoin’s 100-month high move approx. The bottom of the 2022 bear market formed above this level, and the current setup looks similar.
Based on these indicators, the analysis projects $45,000 as a target that could be reached as early as Q4 2026, with October as the latest date.
However, the bearish trend contrasts with institutional demand control. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded their strongest move of 2026, attracting nearly $1 billion and helping BTC recover from near $58,000 earlier this month.
Bitcoin has been trading in the $64,000 to $66,000 range as money measure ETF movements, macroeconomic trends, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Bitcoin price for a long time
In the short term, researcher Ali Martinez, in X post on July 25, he emphasized $63,800 as a difficult level of support for Bitcoin on the four-hour chart.
According to the analysis, BTC remains within the upward trend and is testing the lower limit. If $63,800 serves as a support, Bitcoin may return to $67,000, close to the highs.
However, a definite break below that level would weaken the bullish order and open the door to $60,000, the next major target identified on the chart.
The preparation shows that even if the long-term analysts are looking at how to move closer to $ 45,000 at the beginning of Q4 2026, traders are still looking at whether Bitcoin can protect the $ 63,800 zone in the coming days.
