After a long period of decline, Bitcoin is starting to stabilize, but major economic factors are preventing a long-term recovery.
CoinShares reports that the rebound came with a June US nonfarm payrolls report that was weaker than expected, adding just 57,000 jobs instead of 115,000. This was significantly less than the gain of 129,000 (revised from the 172,000 previously reported) in May.
Macroeconomic factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recovery
At this time, a unemployment is down from 4.3% to 4.2%.
At the release, the market returned its short-term high rates to the Fed, and the yield on the two-year Treasury fell more than five basis points.
In other words, low bond yields make volatile income less attractive and often lead investors to move their money to riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. This change in mindset helped Bitcoin Cash (BTC) return to recent lows around $57,000.
The report argues that investors should not confuse the market’s short-term response to a major change in Fed policy.
They added,
The Fed had kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, Kevin Warsh’s first as chair, and the subsequent move was hawkish rather than alarming.
Policymakers now expect rates to reach around 3.8% by the end of 2026, up from the 3.4% forecast three months ago.
Concerns remain
Meanwhile, whales holding more than 100,000 Bitcoins traded a total of $39 billion around the October stock market – the largest increase in the value of the cryptocurrency in 2025.
However, this sale has stopped significantly since 2026.
In fact, while there have been roughly $2.7 billion in outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETPs) this year, CoinShares says that this does not indicate a decline in confidence in the cryptocurrency.
Instead, large investments have shifted to AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have raised $5.5 billion.
The report also points to global uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, dampening hopes for the CLARITY Act’s passage this year, and pressure from Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings as other challenges.
Therefore, the report concluded well as it noted,
This still looks like the first part of a downward spiral, not the start of a new upward leg.
What is happening in the market
This comes as Bitcoin’s price rose 1.3% over the previous day, trading at around $62,494.63 at press time.
Meanwhile, Open Interest has been stable and has been trending upward since mid-June, indicating that traders are still active despite recent changes.
However, the low price and high open interest also indicate that opportunities are growing on both the bullish and bearish sides.
So, for the time being, this brings the possibility of a sudden move if the withdrawal will cause Bitcoin price fluctuations to come.
Brief Summary
- The drop in June US nonfarm payrolls along with the drop in unemployment has pushed the price of Bitcoin above $60k.
- CoinShares removes the limited trust in cryptocurrency despite $2.7 billion from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETPs).
