Bitcoin Cracks 7 Months to the Roof. Can Cows Push Up?

Bitcoin is rising today on political news that few predicted: Iran today declared the Strait of Hormuz (or Strait of Iranas President Donald Trump is now calling for) will remain open during the ceasefire. It led to lower oil prices and a corresponding rise in risk factors.

Bitcoin soared above $78,000 intraday on the news shortly before the news, while digital assets such as Strategy rose more than 10% as BTC’s rise caused its stock to retreat.

The overall environment was hostile for most of 2026 with Middle East conflicts, fears of inflation, a strong dollar, and economic slowdown keeping Bitcoin locked away from its October 2025 peak of $126,000.

The bulls are praying for a change this week.

Bitcoin: Breaking the system, but not in danger

Today’s candlestick on Bitcoin charts is important. Bitcoin opened at $75,172 and traders pushed the daily candle to $77,205—a gain of 2.7% for the session, with an intraday high of $78,384.

That move, modest as it sounds, was important in reinforcing the view that the low resistance method that has been rejecting Bitcoin in every test since October 2025, has become invalid. For seven months, the line was very difficult. This has been the first week for Bitcoin to sell off the line since the bearish trend began.

Starting at an all-time high of $126,000, Bitcoin has followed a record-breaking downward trajectory—higher lows, higher lows, and failed attempts, each stronger than the last. The yellow pattern on the chart above shows that, for several months, Bitcoin registered a bullish pattern where each bounce was reduced, and each support was tested in depth.

If this trend continued unabated, the math was pointing to $50,000–$55,000 as the next level of support. This is now too late, if not over.

Signs are also looking to encourage cattle. The Exponential Moving Averages, which provide traders with an indication of trends based on historical price history, still have the 50-day EMA sitting below the 200-day EMA—a pattern traders call a death cross.

This is important because traders read the death cross as a signal of stability: The short-term trend is still weaker than the long-term trend, meaning that the recovery has not been deep or stable enough to reverse the trend. The death cross does not mean that Bitcoin is falling from here. It means the bulls still have a mountain to climb before this becomes new.

But it is the first time since January that the gap between the two sectors is starting to narrow.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 18.1, which means the current trend is weak. ADX measures the strength of a trend, not its direction. A reading below 25 tells traders that the market is uncertain and prices can move, but there is no real engine behind them. Considering that the markets have been going up for almost half of the year, the weakness of the ADX means that this trend may be over or traders are accumulating as much as possible in this area.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is at 67.7, which means Bitcoin is bullish but still in volatile territory. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of price changes on a scale of 0-100. Areas above 70 are considered overbought—the level at which traders begin to lock in profits. At 67.7, Bitcoin is close to that line but has yet to break through, leaving some room for further upside before the technical selling force ends.

The vertical lines behind the Bitcoin chart above show that a squeeze signal (which shows when prices are under pressure before going too high in either direction) has been released, and is moving in the right direction.

Myriad predictions

At Myriad, a prediction market created by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, traders are leaning bullish on Bitcoin’s next big move. Currently, Myriad traders are installing 69% chance on Bitcoin hitting $84K before dropping to $55K. The difference in favor of the Bitcoin pump is the largest it has been since the market began in early February.

But the same crowd is not thinking about time. A separate Myriad market gives Bitcoin only a 6% chance of hitting the all-time high before July.

Overall, in a positive scenario, Bitcoin stays above the broken lines (now it works like $74,000–$75,000), and the ADX starts to rise above 20-25. If the bears take it again, a new resistance, combined with the RSI rolling back from the overbought levels, will send Bitcoin back to test the support zone. Resting below that makes the broken resistance into resistance, preventing the explosion.