Bitcoin’s recent rally has passed through a major technical and chain area, with CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno warning that several indicators are now pointing to an upside risk after a strong breakout from the April lows.
Moreno he said CryptoQuant has been predicting a potential reversal for several weeks, citing large unrealized gains, rising profits on futures and futures markets, slowing demand for US space, and resistance in tech and chain prices. The firm analysis of the new frames of movement of Bitcoin moves around 200 days as a difficult test if the rally has strong support or is similar to the bear rebound market is losing strength.
Why the Risk of Bitcoin Regulation Is Growing
“Bitcoin has reached a major level of resistance to the bear market, the 200-day moving average at $82.4K, following a price rally of 37% from the April low. The parallel with March 2022 is straightforward: in it, Bitcoin rebounded by 43% before hitting the 200-day MA, after which the price began to question the repetition of its historical downgrade by CryptoQuant. Report of May 13, called “Wall of Resistance: Bitcoin Tests 200-Day MA as Profit Taking and Weak US Demand Cap the Rally.”
Collaborative Reading
The comparison with March 2022 is important for the company’s warning. In CryptoQuant’s reading, the 200-day move is not only based on chart skill, but it is the area where bear market rallies failed when supported by weak demand and strong profit taking. Bitcoin’s 37% move from the April lows has brought the market to the same kind of inflection point.
A major concern is the rise of unearned profits among entrepreneurs. CryptoQuant reported that the unrealized profit of traders reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest level since June 2025. This is important because the owners of the most profitable paper are usually ready to sell power, especially when the rally is approaching the most critical level.
The company also said that the lower levels are showing which was seen in March 2022when Bitcoin finally tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its decline. What it means is not that the market should repeat the results, but that the current setup has the same risk of distribution if the demand does not strengthen.
Earnings data suggests some sales have already begun. CryptoQuant said that the daily realized profit surped to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. According to the report, the spikes of the scale during meetings bear-market history before the peak in the region, as only the beneficiaries where the few savers help to sell in the power price.
Collaborative Reading
The market demand side is also weak in CryptoQuant’s analysis. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium it changed significantly at the end of April and stayed below zero when Bitcoin approached $80,000, which the company interpreted as a sign of reduced demand for US businesses.
CryptoQuant reported that Coinbase’s stable premium has been essential for Bitcoin’s stability, and that its absence suggests that this volatility does not have a significant impact on US institutions.
A place to see wishes have gone wellbut they remain negative. The deal shrank from 91K BTC in April to minus 11K BTC, according to the report. CryptoQuant said that this shows that conditions are starting to slow down, but not strong enough to warrant sustained accumulation. The company also noted that demand growth appears to be more likely to be sustained in futures than in current purchases.
If the correction is growing, CryptoQuant has identified a large part of the chain’s support near $70,000, which is represented by the Guaranteed Value of Chain Sellers. The company said this level has in the past served as an antidote to bear markets because it reflects the average price of short-term traders.
At press time, BTC traded at $76,961.
Graphic design by DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
