Bitcoin is going up. After touching down near $60,000 last week, the price has returned to trade around $63,800 and the question that every trader is facing is whether this move is the beginning of something profitable or just that the market is holding its breath before another leg down.
Based on the design of the technology taking place over a period of time, the evidence points definitively to the latter.
Where Bitcoin Stands
The surge that started in October remains and none of the current prices have changed this assessment. What professional tracking The Elliott Wave pattern indicates that it is a small book that is developing within a large three-bear market. The first leg down brought Bitcoin from the highs to February lows.
Recovery followed in May. Now, with the price rejected from the 200-day moving average, the market seems to be working through a second breakout before what could be a very important third wave decline after the summer.
Levels That Define Everything
Two opposing phases define the long-term trend clearly. The original and latest ranges between $64,500 and $66,269. Bitcoin needs to break well above this level to confirm that the second wave has real power instead of a wavering start.
The second and most important resistance is between $67,000 and $77,388. This is the upper limit of the control strategy, and as long as any rally stays below it, the broader bearish trend remains intact. A move above $77,000 would force a proper review of all bearish sentiments, but this is not the case.
On the downside, the support area between $60,200 and $62,240 is the key level to watch. As long as Bitcoin continues to hold above it, the double breakout may continue to reach $70,700 to $73,400, which represents the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone where the correction is headed.
A break below $60,200 would mean that the second wave has already ended and the third strong decline has begun, which could target the $55,500 area as the next support.
At the moment, Bitcoin is jumping and the jump may continue to run. But the structure of the market has not changed and the trend remains low until confirmed otherwise.
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