The head of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, says that the distribution of Bitcoin may be less a sign of structural weakness than a large transfer of assets from former market participants to US financial institutions, ETFs and long-term holders.
In a mailing list on X, Ki said that the sale of Bitcoin OGs and long-term mining is part of a wider “change of hands” and not evidence that the stock has exhausted its cycle. The important question, in his view, is not how much is being sold, but who is taking it.
“I believe that the sale of Bitcoin OGs is long-term workers it is part of a large change in hands, transfers to United States financial institutions, mutual funds, and ETFs.
Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is Changing
Ki’s thesis starts with the creation of Bitcoin holders. He added that, for any product, the long-term success of the market is highly dependent on the capital behind it. If the new owners are corporations that can attract more water in the long run, he said, the change could support further growth.
“In everything, the most important thing is who owns it,” he wrote. “If the people who are involved now are organizations that can bring in more money in the future, then I think we can look forward to the next meeting at any time.”
This conflict is a common symptom of the current market. Bitcoin has seen a huge selloff even as large buyers continue to eat away. Ki described the current share as “a huge change of hands,” pointing to the market where former owners are distributing while ETFs, The way and new groups take the other side.
Collaborative Reading
According to Ki, Bitcoin investors’ average price basis about $53,000. Historically, he said, bear markets ended only when the price fell below the target price. It was previously thought that the rating would be difficult to review due to the number of agencies and the low sales of the Strategy. But he said the latest developments show “a lot of pressure to sell.”
The size of the absorption is very important for its concern. Since January 2023, Strategy has bought 711,206 BTC and sold 32 BTC alone, removing the net 711,174 BTC circulation, according to Ki. Since March 2024, when Bitcoin was again around $63,000, ETFs have bought 509,102 BTC while Strategy bought another 650,706 BTC. Together, this equates to 1,240,808 BTC taken, yet the price has returned to the same level.
In theory, Ki noted that the exchange reserves are around 2.7 million BTC, right Satoshi Nakamoto he is said to be holding around 1 million BTC. In other words, more Bitcoin than the number of Satoshis, and almost half of the exchange rate, has been taken without advancing the value.
Short-Term Buyers Are Growing
Ki also showed significant changes within the perceptual cup. Bitcoin is at the same price as it was two years ago, he said, but the environment it’s in looks different. The 6 to 2 month group, which represents investors who entered during this period, now accounts for 53% of the total, up from 15% two years ago.
This is important because, in the definition of Ki, those with limited time they gradually become long-term savers. He compared the current picture with the last cycle, when Bitcoin bottomed after the same cohort reached 68% of the realized cap. “Short-term holders are turning into long-term holders,” he wrote.
Collaborative Reading
Planning is not without risk. Ki also wrote a different opinion from Julio Moreno saying that the total demand for Bitcoin, including speculative and real estate demand, works out to 232,000 BTC per month. Moreno argued that this correction is directly linked to Bitcoin demand, not to commodities, oil or the macro, noting that stocks are always higher when manufacturing activity is improving.
Ki’s writing presents a fragmented picture. On the other hand, current demand is slowing and selling pressure remains heavy even by historical standards. On the other hand, the ownership of Bitcoin is moving to organizations and developing new groups that can provide the necessary foundation for the future.
Ki acknowledged that the change comes with a cultural cost. “Honestly, in terms of the price increase, I think that traditional financial investors can provide more value than Bitcoin OGs,” he wrote. Of course, in that case, some of the points of cypherpunk can be diluted.
For the markets, the debate is now turning to whether Wall Street is expanding the share of ownership Bitcoin can eliminate the need to leave the old owners and miners. Ki’s bottom line is still encouraging, but based on that transfer being a source of income in the future and not an upside down ceiling.
“However, I believe there will be another rise in Bitcoin,” he wrote. “As an investor, I still believe in Bitcoin and think I have to wait for a while.”
At press time, BTC traded at $62,696.
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