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Ahmed Barakat
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Two major events that will define the Bitcoin position in the second half within seven days of each other: May CPI on June 10 and the FOMC policy on June 17.
The April headline CPI has already reached 3.8% for the year, the highest reading since May 2023, and the market did not do well what the second publication in a row does on the Federal Reserve’s expected path. That volatility is where ±10% Bitcoin moves.
The shipping method is not complicated, but it is accurate. CPI directly feeds dot expectations, dot expectations move real yields, real yields move DXY, and DXY moves Bitcoin.
The four links in the chain are all simultaneously in the June 10-17 window, and they are not pointing in the same direction right now.
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How CPI Prints by the FOMC Convert to Bitcoin Through the DXY Channel
CPI transmission works through three channels simultaneously. First, an increase in headline rates changes market prices for the amount of Fed tapering that is linked forward.
Second, interest rates increase Treasury yields. Third, the difference in yields between the US economy and the rest of the world changes the DXY, and Bitcoin, valued in dollars and linked to international currencies, responds differently.
First example: hot print above 3.6% YoY. This is not an estimate, given the April reading of 3.8% and the PPI already at 6.0% for the year, the biggest one-month advance since March 2022.
A second consecutive hot CPI eliminates the possibility of a 2026 rate cut on the consensus price, pushing the DXY to 107, putting pressure on global currencies, and giving Bitcoin a direct test of the mid-$60,000s.
Kraken’s financial summary explains exactly: “A stronger-than-expected reading could moderate inflation later in 2026.”
Second example: printing between 3.3% and 3.6%. The drop system is an optional event. If the intermediate drop of 2026 changes from two levels to one, DXY will maintain its range and Bitcoin will trade sideways in the FOMC statement. No decision, high volatility, and the market is waiting for June 17 to make a decision.
Example 3: cooling failure below 3.0%. Core CPI is currently at 2.8% YoY, and the Fed weighs more than the headline in the discussion. The surprise of all these measures brings back the plot of the drop to the triple cut of 2026, sending the DXY to 99, and restarting the risk that the Bitcoin bulls have been waiting for since April.
The Fed’s design, according to Kraken’s summary, is not clear: “Fed officials have positioned the labor market and inflation as the two indicators of when rates will change.” May NFP on June 5 will arrive first, while April is already showing minimum wage of 115,000 nonfarm payrolls and unemployment at 4.3%.
The work data feeds the calculations of the dots themselves. Each release in the two days is not independent – it depends on the sequence. Like Kraken Letter puts: “From the NFP on Friday through the CPI on the 10th, the PPI on the 11th, and the FOMC on the 17th, this week has a clear macro outlook.
Bitcoin Chart Entering the Gauntlet: Levels That Decide the Issue of 2026
Bitcoin is also affected by high volatility, and the rapid erasure of geopolitical divisions confirms this.
The number 2 refers to the technical structure that is going into June. $68,000 resistance and $63,500 support. A weekly close above $68,000 on accelerating volume changes the chart from consolidation to breakout.
The daily close below $62,500 opens $60,000, where the next important shelf is located.
The short-term holder realized the combined value was close to $65,000, the initial value of the wallets that acquired BTC within the last 155 days.
That level is no accident. That’s the part where you have the cow and the bear bag now sharing the same address.
The daily RSI is average, neither overbought nor oversold. Funds are good but not high, meaning that the next big contributor hits the market that is clearly visible without being too much.
The weekly chart is rotating. The biggest decline since the peak in April. The biggest drop since the May flush. The combination does not go beyond the 2nd inflation report and the FOMC policy change. The window from June 10 to 17 decides which way to go.
Instability is coming. The only open question is the method.
