Altcoins are trading like a commodity, and crypto is still far from the altcoin era, according to traders Crypto Kid and Player1Taco on the BeInCrypto Market Intelligence Expert Council.
Market data matches them. The Altcoin Season Index reads 49, a level that reflects the dominance of Bitcoin instead of a major altcoin rally.
Altcoin Season Index Confirms Bears
The two traders spoke to BeInCrypto on May 17, when Bitcoin (BTC) changed hands near $77,000. The token has dropped to $61,282, down nearly 24% over 30 days.
This decline establishes a caring attitude that all men share. It is also related to the market that has loved Bitcoin for many years.
The Altcoin Season Index makes this point in one number. The chart shows how many of the top 50 coins beat Bitcoin in the last 90 days.
A reading above 75 indicates a real altcoin season. At 49, the market is closer to Bitcoin’s breakout than any altcoin breakout.
Support numbers are increasing. The dashboard shows 256 days since altcoins led the market. Bitcoin, in contrast, recorded its last season 21 days earlier.
Altcoin cycles are short and rare. They last 17 days and peak every 67 days, while Bitcoin’s cycles are more frequent.
Altcoins as Trophy Assets
Crypto Kid built a bear around a simple idea. Altcoins, they argue, only attract money when traders are holding on to money they can afford to lose.
“Altcoins are seen as trophy assets where you can put them next to supercars, including luxury watches, along with artwork.”
This design explains the continuous bleeding against Bitcoin. Altcoins are very sensitive money than major economies do, so they fall harder when things get tough.
His timing is based on the monetary policy. The real altcoin era, he says, needs the kind of printing money that defines the 2020 and 2021 cycle.
Price cuts on this scale are not on the immediate calendar. Crypto Kid points to 2028 or 2029 as the most visible window of rotation in the market.
“Yeah I don’t see an altcoin season happening and we’re not in an altcoin season.”
Giving makes math more difficult. The market had about 3,000 investments in 2017 and is now in the millions.
This density spreads the capital over a large number of tickers, so each ticker has a small portion of the data. Expert Benjamin Cowen has announced similar liquidity constraints.
Most altcoins don’t even have the 21 million Bitcoin cap. Their rising prices mean that paying off the 2021 hike would require even higher prices than before.
Stories Still Worth Watching
Crypto Kid leaves one door open. Any topics can be done even without a broad weatherand Player1Taco goes through them.
Taco remains highly motivated, impressing as a real driver in a fragmented market. Currently, that focus is on artificial intelligence.
“Right now, I think the AI story is in focus. We’re seeing Venice VVV take off.”
His reading is rich because he builds in this section. Taco describes himself as a major contributor to Morpheus, an artificial intelligence project.
He expects distribute AI products to continue drawing revenue while the nature of Morpheus and Venice is growing. Venice Token (VVV) trades around $15.72 after gaining more than 300% over the past year.
National Assets (RWAs) give its short listwith an attractive inclusion as a grip corner. His strongest belief of 12 months, however, rests on the infrastructure.
“DePIN can be very important. It falls on both sides of RWA and it falls into the AI category.”
Decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) sit at the intersection of two of his favorite topics. A symbol GPUs and data centers and infrastructure providers, with World Mobile and Helium named leaders.
One Market, Two Playbooks
The two traders read the same data and access different data. Crypto Kid remains a hedge against altcoins until the money runs out.
Taco acknowledges the macro backdrop and yet remains focused on the builder and story. They all agree that this is one of the best places for development the industry has seen.
At this point, the index answers the title question. With a reading of 49 and 256 days since the last exchange, no altcoin season is underway.
Nuance is where these two entrepreneurs come together. AI, RWA, and DePIN can still provide stable acceleration, but the broad spectrum of altcoins they describe is out of reach.
A note Experts Say No Altcoin Season Until Money Printing Returns appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
