Research group Galaxy Digital has reduced its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% just three weeks ago, citing a Senate calendar that grows shorter each week and a bill that still has no attached text, scheduled vote, or leadership commitment.
down, printed Galaxy explorer Alex Thorn, it’s more of a calendar story than a material story. The bill itself – and CLARITY Actoverview of the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act – to be purified Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has been on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Number 423 ever since. No date has been set. No move is planned.
The CLARITY Act represents the most important attempt by Congress to develop a policy to regulate the digital economy. Draws lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, they establish The standards for digital assets are anti-security, and include the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which provides protection for certain blockchain developers and node operators.
The bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support, a familiar place in politics where crypto laws often cross party lines.
The House passed the 2024 market cap, but what the Senate has done is more difficult. The banking and agriculture committees are both in power, and the reconciliation of the staff on the two texts is still in progress. No joint regulations have been announced.
The calendar problem is the CLARITY Act
For a 60-vote bill — which needs to clear a filibuster — the math is tight. The Senate is expected to begin its August recess in late July. As of now, the Banking-Agriculture merger statement still needs to be finalized, the motion to continue needs to be filed, the floor debate needs to happen, and the reform process needs to be done.
After all this, the House must act on what the Senate issues.
Thorn wrote that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is expected to announce the start date in early July “at the earliest” in order for the July vote to take place.
With no planned announcement at that time, the process shifts to September — and September marks the start of midterm elections that make organizing controversial votes difficult.
The race for bottom time has increased. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act expired on June 12 after Congress. he failed for relicensing, and the Grassley-Cotton-Warner product still needs some down time.
The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, which is supposed to be passed in the current year of defense, has not yet passed.
And on June 24, President Trump to be terminated the necessary signing of a bicameral resolution that passed 358-32 in the House and 85-5 in the Senate, and put his signature on Congress to pass the SAVE Act, a bill to guarantee citizens’ choices that Thune said he did not have the votes to pass the chamber. This leads to another leadership-destroying fight in an already crowded queue.
The calendar is the topic of discussion, but the issue of the bill is far from over. The question of morals is very important: the amendment of the debates of interest to Van Hollen failed 11-13 in the committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker continue to make legal points to be their support.
Thorn wrote that at least two Republican absentee votes – Josh Hawley and Rand Paul – are expected, which means that Democratic crossover support is unlikely to decide. Pro-legislative senators are also pushing for some changes to the immunity language within BRCA.
Galaxy notes identified factors that could lead to a return to the conflict: a public agreement on the combined Banking-Agriculture statement, a reliable confirmation on the ethical or BRCA debates in a way to block the stable democratic bloc, and the commitment of the leadership of July. A planned announcement in the next two weeks, Thorn wrote, would push the company back to 60% or more. Staying quiet until mid-July would have led to a decline.
Currently, the bill is pending at number 423 on the Senate calendar – real, but unscheduled, in a chamber that continues to find other items.
