Bitcoin is still trading above $60,000, but there are questions as to whether that area has already been reached to be large on the ground for this repair or other damage they can still recover the cost in that zone. Technical analysis using Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, previous support, and the 21-week and 50-week EMA shows the trend’s upside, but the bears can still tell. warranty has not arrived until Bitcoin broke above the weekly EMA structure.
Bitcoin May Be Low Already
The strongest argument that Bitcoin may have already gone down is based on the weekly RSI indicator. According to to the sharing thesis and Cryptoposeidon on X, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has fallen below 30 only four times in history. The first three came around January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022, all of which later turned out to be very low areas.
Collaborative Reading
Back in January 2015, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 28 when the price dropped to $200. A similar pattern occurred in December 2018, when the RSI dropped below 30 around $3,500, followed by an almost three-month sideways trend before Bitcoin broke through. The third example was June 2022, during the bear market that followed the fall of Luna.
The fourth reading came in early February 2026, shortly after Bitcoin fell to around $63,000, and. this is consistent with the idea that Bitcoin may have already passed its major capitulation phase.
The candlestick chart below also shows the RSI recovering from the lower band similar to the market’s bullish areas, and the expected trend. meaning that power they can spend more time rebuilding before making a strong move in 2027.
The price of Bitcoin. Source: @CryptoPoseidonn On X
What a $100,000 Return Guarantee Really Looks Like
The last two bear markets both took 364 days to go from peak to peak. The correction is now 236 days, which leaves 128 days window to Bitcoin making something lower if it follows immediately.
Collaborative Reading
However, looking at November 2022, Bitcoin broke below the previous price of $19,900 and fell to $15,500, spending a short time at $16,000. This collapse was forced by the FTX implosion, a black hole event that destroyed billions and destroyed confidence at the same time. In the absence of a corresponding shock, the crypto market’s behavior lacks a way to keep prices below $60,000 within the remaining 128-day window.
Bitcoin’s long-term support band is between $58,000 and $66,000, and the February 2026 low is within that range. Bitcoin can still invest up to $55,000 or $50,000 in domestic affairs, but long-term use under $60,000 may require a more powerful catalyst.
On the other hand, a reversal and a monthly close above the weekly EMA at $80,000 in June 2026 would change the discussion from “Is $60,000 down?” to “Can Bitcoin quickly rebuild to $100,000?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,860, down 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
Graphic design by Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
