In short
- Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday.
- The bill would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from predicting the outcome of policies, government actions, or elections through prediction markets.
- It also builds on the broader scrutiny of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, including the Senate ban on member/employee betting and the House Oversight investigation into the platforms.
House Republican leader he introduced laws Thursday that would prevent members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from investing in prediction markets about legislation, government action, or election results.
Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), chairman of the House Oversight Committee, unveiled the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, saying it aims to prevent elected officials from spending their money in public.
“The American people need to know that their member of Congress is not benefiting from inside information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that this will not happen,” said Chairman Steil, in a statement. “This law is very important for people to start trusting the people they elected again. MPs should write policies, not wait for them to happen.”
Under the measure, violators will be fined $2,000 or 10% of the value of the wager, whichever is greater, plus any profit earned on the bet. Lawmakers could not use office money, taxpayer funds or campaign contributions to pay the fines, and those who leave office without paying could be sent to the Justice Department for public service.
Steil’s office said the legislation builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which the committee passed in January.
The bill follows a growing backlash in Washington over lawmakers and government officials using platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to make political bets, including their brands.
Steil told reporters at the beginning of this month that he wants to add similar restrictions to a larger stockbrokering bill in Congress, which as written would already bar lawmakers, spouses and dependents from buying new stock and would punish violators with similar fines. The stock market bill has been stalled since a cleanup committee in February, though Steil has indicated he hopes the House will vote on it this summer.
The new market forecasting bill also follows a recent move in government: the Senate issued a ruling in April prohibiting its members and employees from using the prediction markets, while the House Oversight Committee in May opened an investigation in Kalshi and Polymarket in what its chairman described as an internal marketing strategy on platforms.
Such moves have come next April’s main arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who is accused of using confidential information to promote Polymarket’s bet on the January ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, making more than $400,000 in profits. Van Dyke he did not plead not guilty to cases. The case is December launch.
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