Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000 has shaken the crypto market. But according to Glassnode’s co-founder Rafael Schultze-KraftThe recent decline may bring Bitcoin to a rare position that has been showing a high profile in the market.
The big question: Is Bitcoin near its bottom, or is there more pain ahead?
Bitcoin Enters Historic Support Area
The recent drop pushed Bitcoin to a record low of $59,791 before recovering above $61,000. The drop came a few days after Strategy revealed a light sell-off in Bitcoin, adding new pressure to an already weak market.
According to Rafael, Bitcoin has now joined the ranks of the valuation groups that have been acting as a support during a major decline in the market.
One clear sign is that Bitcoin has fallen below the median breakeven price of the holder for the first time since December 2022. The asset is also trading around two well-monitored levels, first the Known Median Price near $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of $61,700.
Rafael also noted that “only about 7% of Bitcoin’s trading history has been spent below this Median MVRV level,” meaning that the market is entering an area that does not seem to be moving well.
Glassnode Identifies Potential Down Under
Although several types of monitoring show indicators, Rafael believes that one metric stands above all others.
Cyclic Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model, now around $46,200, it has become one of the most accurate indicators under Bitcoin. In previous sessions, Bitcoin repeatedly found its last low near this level before recovering.
Based on the current framework, Rafael sees a high-perhaps low zone between the Bitcoin Realized Price around $54,000 and the CVDD level around $46,000.
Deep talk is still possible, but less so. Below is a low support between $ 35,000 and $ 40,000, the place where Bitcoin visited less than 3% of its trading history.
Why This Cycle May Be Different
Rafael also points out that Bitcoin’s decline has been relatively low over time. Previous bear markets were down more than 80%, while the current cycle is down nearly 50% from peak to date. This suggests that Bitcoin may not need a major fall to complete the correction.
For cattle, the next challenge is to restore high levels. Rafael identified the range of $75,000 to $79,000 as the first point of recovery, where several important market indicators meet.
If history repeats, the market may be approaching a point where long-term buyers begin to return.
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