Bitcoin is working above the 200-week high for another week, a level that has been separating bull markets from increasingly bear markets. A question that now dominates scholarly discussion is whether it is recent
t the decline to $59,000 was limited or only temporary before a further decline to $30,000 to $40,000.
Why Pigs Are Better
An expert named Michaël van de Poppe made an important comment on how the recent sale took place. Markets fell the most in a week, a move that creates risk and rushes lower. That speed was not reached.
Instead of continuing to decline, Bitcoin swept the recent lows and immediately regained its previous support levels. Van de Poppe said that price behavior increases the likelihood that the bottom is near rather than the bottom.
“It doesn’t sound like we’re seeing $30,000 to $40,000,” he wrote, suggesting that bullish intentions are waning because of the market’s response.
Most Bearish Case Remains
Elliott Wave analysis creates scenarios where Bitcoin is still at the beginning of a multi-year correction that will last four to five years and keep the stock at record low levels.
In these cases the next rally, whenever it arrives, would be a correction rather than a real bull market. It may still produce two or three repetitions from the bottom but it is debilitating, mentally exhausting, followed by another big drop.
The indicator to watch is the shape of the first big recovery from whatever the last drop was. A five-wave high may signal the end of a bear market. A lower three-wave movement may indicate that a major correction is still underway.
Worth Watching
The 200-week moving average near $62,800 is the upcoming battleground. Touching the top of it opens both. A steady rest below can change the access to more movement for many years.
What will happen in the coming years will be more informative than any price. How Bitcoin bounces, and whether the bounce shows real strength or fades quickly, will determine which trend is taking place.
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