Galaxy Digital chief research officer Alex Thorn lowered his odds of getting the Clarity Act into law in 2026 from 75% to 60%. The cuts reflect a tightening of the Senate calendar rather than any weakness in the bill.
The cryptocurrency market cleared the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support and reached the floor calendar on June 1. What is missing is a vote to prepare the floor before August.
Time, Not Material, Drives Decline
Thorn planned the move like a machine. The committee approved the bill 15 to 9, and it is now in the Senate calendar as Calendar no. 423.
His concern is the number of days left. The bill must clear the Senate, and possibly the House again, before lawmakers leave for the August recess at the end of July.
After that, the mid-term campaign wastes the time to start major legislation. These changes have changed the bills obstacles ahead since removed Senate Banking last month.
Reducing my chances of 2026 clearly this passage from 75% immediately after writing to 60% today I said in May that the senate calendar was one of the biggest challenges, and this picture has grown a lot,” he wrote A thorn.
Thorn’s odds are slightly higher than Polymarket’s, with retailers seeing only a 54% chance that the Clarity Act will pass in 2026. This represents an 11% drop from what was posted the previous day.
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Down Time Continues to End
Indeed, the runway has slowed down in recent weeks. The Senate wasted days fighting the anti-arms budget.
An orderly vote to amend Section 702 of the executive order then he failed 47 to 52 on June 5. The ruling will expire on June 12, with most of next week pointing to re-approval.
The squeeze fits the bill early delaywhen the Senate adjourned a short time later a two-committee vote.
Math Still Needs Democrats
A floor vote will require at least 60 votes to resolve the issue. Thorn hopes that Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul will vote no.
Both also opposed the failed FISA expansion. That leaves the presidency needing at least nine Democrats to carry it market building bill passing through the ground.
Moral and illegal economic laws remain open, and Democrats tie their support to moral language. No public agreement has emerged on the matter.
“I’m still optimistic but time is of the essence now and the odds can change dramatically as the calendar goes on,” added Thorn.
A credible commitment from General Manager John Thune to fix the July deadline could reverse the crisis.
Otherwise, the process culminates in the dreaded September test.
A note Senate Calendar Crunch Forces Galaxy to Reduce Exposure by 15% appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
