## Market overview
On the “US-Iran Ceasefire” market, the probability of a YES result is currently at 0.1%, down from 1% 24 hours ago. Currently, the “WTI Crude Oil Prices in May 2026” market is expected to increase in prices, although the exact percentage is not available.
## Essentials
– Trump’s public statements appear to be downplaying the possibility of a US-Iran ceasefire, consistent with the potential for military conflict. – The central political tension expressed by Trump’s statement is linked to the possibility of higher WTI oil prices. – Market activity shows doubts about the progress of US-Iran diplomacy, as no new meetings are planned.
## News Agency
Former US President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about the ongoing negotiations with Iran, rejecting the idea that it has been changed from Tehran and that the idea of war would be good. Since the ceasefire on April 7, 2026, tensions have continued, with the US blocking Iranian ports and Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The recent talks between the US Vice President JD Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf were unsuccessful. Trump’s recent comments underline the near-end, with his insistence on assurances against Iran’s nuclear ambitions as a matter of course.
## Market Definition
The news seems to be about the “US-Iran Ceasefire” market, with Trump’s denials and rhetoric supporting NO. The potential escalation of the conflict is linked to the rise in WTI crude oil prices, indicating political risk. All of these markets show that market participants are preparing for events that also involve violence and product disruption.
## Must Watch
Viewers should watch for any comments from the White House or Iranian leaders that could change the story. The involvement of mediators such as Oman or Qatar would represent another diplomatic exercise. Additionally, watch for any military moves or changes in economic sanctions that may affect market sentiment. Energy market participants will focus on changes in the WTI crude oil forecast or international events affecting supply chains.
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