The US Dollar Index (DXY) is starting to move towards 101 after forming below the daily chart. Previously, this move would have weighed on the price of Bitcoin (BTC). But the 2026 communications tell a different story.
Bitcoin trades around $80,605, up 0.97% in 24 hours and 8.71% in the last 30 days. The question now is whether the strength of the dollar still drives the price of BTC, or whether Bitcoin is moving on its fundamentals.
Long Term Connections Remain Rich
For more than ten years, a DXY and Bitcoin have often moved in opposite directions transportation. Data from Bitcoin Counterflow dates back to 2011 and clearly shows the trend.
Bitcoin bullish periods in 2013, 2017, and 2020 were followed by DXY weakness below 90. DXY rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022 coincided with deep BTC declines of 60% or more.
The method behind the link is straightforward. A weaker dollar usually signals a lower economy and higher risk, both of which boosted Bitcoin along with other risky assets.
Youtuber Carl Moon recently posted a similar monthly chart that reinforces this theory. Its chart shows the decline of Bitcoin to all DXY shares.
The red blocks on the BTC bull run correspond to the DXY downtrend, while the green blocks on the bull run indicate the strength of the dollar. However, the future projection of the Moon pulls all of the elements to push upwards together, indicating that the relationship is changing.
2026 Tells a Serious Story
While the macro view helps the problem, the recent events confuse it. The combination between DXY and Bitcoin on the daily chart shows a mixed picture in 2026.
Late January and early February saw a correlation close to 1.00 (blue ellipse). All these assets fell together as risk markets recovered. The same connection came again in mid-March and early April, and both recovered accordingly.
Negative correlations returned from mid-April to May (red ellipse). DXY rallied while BTC rallied around $80,000. The index approached the negative 1.00, setting up a reversal pattern after months of correlation.
This whip is related to this structural change Bitcoin the market. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows reached $1.97 billion in April, the strongest month of 2026.
Institutional demand now affects BTC prices regardless of dollar movements. Conversely, trades driven by traditional trades reacted more strongly to the dollar’s strength. This sentiment appears to be waning as the exit of BlackRock and other issuers is setting up a more sustainable offering.
DXY Price Forecast Up to 101.075
The current DXY chart establishes a positive technical outlook. The price traded at 99.124 after breaking above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 98.548. The W pattern in April and May provides the basis for the move.
The bullish target is at 101.075, about 2% above current levels. That level prints above the supply point of 100.393, which indicates an increase of 1.0 Fibonacci and the top of March and April.
Momentum helps the explosion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned green and continues to grow.
Inadmissibility comes daily near the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 97.408. That area corresponds to the green support band that appears on the chart.
This configuration creates a clean test for the well-connected question. If DXY clears 100.393 and Bitcoin holds or meetingsthe contract withdrawal thesis weighs.
However, if BTC is trading as DXY pushes 101, the historical correlation confirms it, and the macro. strength they currently run Bitcoin. The next few weeks should tell whether Bitcoin has grown into an independent commodity or remains a bull on the path of the dollar.
A note US Dollar Index Rises: Will Bitcoin Price Follow or Pull Back? appeared for the first time BeInCrypto.
