In short
- William Blair cut his 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates for Coinbase by 34% and reduced revenue forecasts by 12-13%, but remained positive, saying that earnings should continue to grow by the end of the year before 2027.
- Shares of Coinbase and Circle rose about 3-4% each on Wednesday after William Blair said that the main risks have already subsided and both stocks have strong hopes for the recovery of Bitcoin; COIN is down about 30% this year, CRCL about 20%.
- John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, showed a fractal “W” double-bottom of the Bitcoin daily chart-calling the pattern completed “confirmation of a change in the trend.”
The numbers got worse. Sales went up.
Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) each rose about 3-4% on Wednesday after William Blair—a Chicago-based bank founded in 1935 that many investors know from technology and growth.he released a document reducing Coinbase’s revenue and earnings while maintaining its “success”.
The reading in the TLDR comments is that the pain is already in the tree. “We think that coins should have Coinbase,” firm he said.
The company cut its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 estimate by 13%, and revised its EBITDA forecast by 34% in both years. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury said that gains will be possible in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027, and that investors should remain as crypto currency volume below Bitcoin.
William Blair expects Coinbase’s trading volume to drop by around 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding to more than 32% in 2027.
The company sees this change as different from 2022: Here there are Bitcoin ETFs, the organization has grown, and the management has grown in ways that did not exist four years ago.
The company reviewed Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network as a way to manage large, transaction-based and prediction markets that generate revenue that goes beyond real estate—trading derivatives alone exceeded $200 million annually in the first part.
Not all of them were very encouraging at the same time. Piper Sandler’s analyst Patrick Moley cut his price to $155 from $170, keeping it “political”. He announced the futures and futures markets as the defining story of Q2 – the World Cup boosted the growth of the futures market – and warned of “great caution for investors on future risk” coming into Q3.
Coinbase has fallen about 30% this year, along with about 26% decline in Bitcoin. Circle, which started in the splashy June 2025 NYSE IPO at $31 a share, down nearly 20% since January.
Example “W”: Why John Bollinger says Bitcoin is ready to explode
The same reading is also evident among technologists. John Bollinger—a former technical expert who created Bollinger Bands, volatile envelopes formed above and below a moving average used by traders around the world to detect potential stress and breakouts—has been showing trends on Bitcoin’s daily chart since early July.
On July 2, Bollinger posted his assessment of X, noting the “W” below the double. The double-bottom is a reverse formation defined by two waves with a rebound in the middle; it turns bullish once the price clears the resistance above the barrel.
He called the setup “perfectly fractal” -small versions of the same shape nest inside the main structure, and the pattern appears on the chart every week. He was upfront about the uncertainty: previous bullish setups had been canceled due to selling pressure throughout the period.
In a more recent informationBollinger said that when this “W” is completed, he will see it as “an affirmation of social change.” This is his most famous public sign yet that the trend is about to change and not stop.
Bollinger revealed the long run of Bitcoin through his investment vehicle earlier this year, so his analysis and book point in the same direction. In terms of technical analysis, the price of Bitcoin remains low, but what happens losing power.
Who is Bitcoin under?
According to Glassnode’s latest weekly analysislong-term sentiment – the main source of selling pressure throughout the year – has peaked two weeks ago and declined. The metric that measures what long-term holders actually commit to each day, adjusted to exclude internal transfers, peaked and is now in its first decline this cycle.
Buyers appeared at the end of June. Glassnode recorded the number of wallets of all types during that time. Bitcoin’s conflicting relationship with the dollar has increased as its relationship with US equities has eased, and its focus on good news has returned: Tuesday’s publication of soft inflation moved Bitcoin more than the major currencies.
The sticking point is the same for stock market analysts and Wall Street alike – no consistent buying has guaranteed a recovery.
Exit positions are easing, long-term sellers are shrinking, and the amount of panic in the options market is diminishing. But the capital has not fully arrived. William Blair puts the inflection point at 2027, projecting a 32% rebound in Coinbase trading volume after expecting this year’s 44% decrease.
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